Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 3 (10/3) MLB

Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 3 (10/3) MLB

 

Odds

Time 6:40 p.m. EST
Braves money line -210
Braves run line -1.5 (-130)
Marlins money line +170
Marlins run line +1.5 (+110)
Over / under 8.5

 

Key stats

  Atlanta Braves  Miami Marlins
Record 100-59 67-92
Road / home record 45-33 32-46
Last 10 record 7-3 6-4
Streak W3 W2
Over / under record 79-72-8 69-81-9
Runs / game 4.89 3.58
Runs allowed / game 3.72 4.18

 

Preview

The Miami Marlins and the Atlanta Braves will play their final series of the season at the loanDepot park. The Braves swept the Mets in the weekend series and the Marlins beat the Brewers 3 of 4 times but are 4-12 vs Braves this season.

 

Atlanta Braves

The Braves get here with a 100-59 record and have won 7 their last 10 games. The team is averaging 4.89 runs per game. They're batting for .254 AVG, 778 runs scored in 1367 hits and 241 home runs, ranking #3 in offense in the league behind the NY Yankees. Austin Riley is leading the team with 38 home runs and 93 RBI while Dansby Swanson has the better batting average with .277. 

Defensively they are allowing 3.72 runs per game and rank #4 in the league. Max Fried leads the pitching staff with a 2.48 ERA, 170 strikeouts and 14 wins recorded with the Braves. 

Probable Pitcher:  Bryce Elder (2-3, 2.76 ERA)

Elder will be on the mound in the 1st game of the series for the Braves. Elder allowed six hits and a walk while striking out six in a complete game shutout of the Nationals on Monday. He has a 0-1 record with an ERA of 1.53 and 20 strikeouts in 3 appearances against the Marlins in his career.

Miami Marlins

The Marlins get here with a 67-92 record and have won 3 of their last 5 games. The team is averaging 3.58 runs per game. They're batting for .229 AVG, have 569 runs scored in 1215 hits and 140 home runs, ranking #28 in offense in the league behind the Washington Nationals. Jesus Aguilar leads with 15 home runs, 49 RBI. Garret Cooper is batting for an average of .274. 

Defensively they are allowing 4.18 runs per game and rank #12 in the league. Sandy Alcantara is leading the team with a 2.28 ERA, 207 strikeouts and 14 wins recorded.

Probable Pitcher:  Jesus Luzardo (3-7, 3.53 ERA)

Luzardo will be on the mound in the 1st game of the series for the Marlins. Luzardo did not factor into the decision Wednesday, allowing two runs on four hits and two walks over six innings against the Mets. He struck out six. He has a 1-2 record with an ERA of 6.23 and 18 strikeouts in 3 appearances against the Braves in his career.

 

BETTING TRENDS

Atlanta are 8-0 SU in their last 8 games against Miami.

Atlanta are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games on the road.

Atlanta are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games when playing on the road against Miami.

Miami are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games.

Miami are 6-12 SU in their last 18 games at home.

Miami are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games when playing at home against Atlanta.

 

Prediction

This will be the last series for every team and the Marlins who are eliminated, won their last series vs Brewers but have been dominated by the Braves this season losing 12 of 16 games against them. Luzardo will start for the Marlins who has been decent lately but the Marlins have lost in 12 of the last 13 games when he has started. The Braves are coming from a great series as they swept the Mets so they'll probably take it easy on this one to be at their best for the playoffs. With that being said I think the under is the best play for this game.

PICK: Under 8.5 (-110) 

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