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World Series Game 3: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees – Betting Analysis

Introduction

The Los Angeles Dodgers lead the 2024 World Series 2-0 over the New York Yankees as the series shifts to Yankee Stadium for Game 3. Facing elimination on their home turf, the Yankees are slight favorites with the odds at -145. A Yankees victory would not only prolong the series but could shift momentum in their favor. Game 3 will feature a pitching matchup between Dodgers' ace Walker Buehler and Yankees’ Clarke Schmidt, each aiming to give their team the advantage. With the Yankees backed by home-field energy, this game presents an exciting opportunity for New York to claw back in the series.

Odds Table

Team	Moneyline	Run Line	Total
Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64)	+130	+1.5 (-165)	Over 8.5 (-115)
New York Yankees (94-68)	-145	-1.5 (+140)	Under 8.5 (-105)

The Yankees are favored at -145 on the moneyline, with the Dodgers as underdogs at +130. The run line has the Yankees at -1.5 (+140), while the Dodgers are +1.5 (-165). The over/under total is set at 8.5 runs, with the under slightly favored at -105.

Team Analysis

Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64, 46-35 Away)

The Dodgers have had an exceptional season, finishing with a 98-64 record and capturing the NL West crown. Offensively, they’re led by Shohei Ohtani, who has delivered 54 home runs and 130 RBIs this season, alongside a team .258 batting average and .335 OBP. Their lineup is one of the deepest in baseball, capable of putting up runs consistently.

Defensively, the Dodgers' pitching staff ranks among the league's best, with a 3.90 team ERA and 1,390 strikeouts on the season. However, they’ve encountered issues with consistency on the road, allowing opponents to capitalize at times. Walker Buehler, who will start Game 3, holds a 6.00 ERA in the postseason, struggling with control in his latest outings.

New York Yankees (94-68, 44-37 Home)

The Yankees come into Game 3 desperate for a win after dropping the first two games in Los Angeles. They’ve relied heavily on their pitching and power offense, with Aaron Judge leading the charge with 58 home runs and 144 RBIs. The Yankees scored 815 runs on the season, posting a team batting average of .248 and a solid .333 OBP.

Pitching has been a strength for New York, with a 3.74 ERA and 1,457 strikeouts as a team. Clarke Schmidt, who will start Game 3, has been steady throughout the season and has a respectable 3.86 ERA in postseason play. With the series now in the Bronx, the Yankees will look to leverage home-field advantage to shift the momentum and claw back in this series.

Starting Pitcher Analysis

Los Angeles Dodgers: Walker Buehler (0-1, 6.00 ERA in the postseason)

Walker Buehler is known for his postseason prowess, but he’s struggled so far in the 2024 playoffs. In his last outing, he gave up 10 hits and 6 earned runs over 9 innings, resulting in a 6.00 ERA. Buehler’s postseason experience cannot be underestimated, but facing a Yankees lineup at Yankee Stadium could present significant challenges, especially given his recent control issues.

New York Yankees: Clarke Schmidt (0-0, 3.86 ERA in the postseason)

Clarke Schmidt has been steady in limited postseason work, holding a 3.86 ERA over 9.1 innings. He allowed just 1 home run and struck out 6 batters, showing control and poise under pressure. Schmidt will need to bring his best against a dangerous Dodgers lineup, but he’s proven capable of managing high-stakes situations. His ability to limit walks and control the strike zone will be key to keeping the Dodgers’ offense in check.

Recent Performance

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have been dominant in the playoffs, winning 4 of their last 5 games, including the first two games of the World Series. They clinched Game 1 in extra innings with a 6-3 win and followed up with a 4-2 victory in Game 2. Their offense has shown power and consistency, but pitching remains an area of concern, especially when Buehler has struggled to maintain form.

New York Yankees

New York’s playoff journey has been tough, with losses in the first two games of the World Series. Prior to facing the Dodgers, they took the ALCS from Cleveland, with key wins in extra innings showcasing their resilience. Now at Yankee Stadium, the Yankees will rely on their home crowd to lift their spirits and boost their chances in Game 3.

Head-to-Head Comparison

The Dodgers and Yankees rarely meet outside of postseason play, making this matchup all the more intriguing. The Dodgers’ lineup has proven slightly more productive so far, but the Yankees’ strength on the mound and power at the plate have made them competitive. Historically, the Yankees have fared well at home in postseason settings, where they have a distinct advantage in the electric atmosphere of Yankee Stadium.

Against the Spread (ATS) Records

The Yankees have covered the spread in 52% of their games as home favorites, while the Dodgers have covered as underdogs in 54% of their road games. With the Yankees needing a win to stay in the series, they may be more motivated to cover the run line. However, the moneyline at -145 offers a safer option for bettors.

Betting Stats and Trends

• Yankees at Home: New York has a 44-37 home record this season and performs well in high-stakes games at Yankee Stadium.
• Dodgers on the Road: Los Angeles has a strong 46-35 record on the road, but they’ve shown vulnerabilities away from Dodger Stadium.
• Walker Buehler's Struggles: Buehler has a postseason ERA of 6.00, showing inconsistency and vulnerability to power hitters.
• Yankees Bounce-Back: The Yankees have a 60.7% chance of winning, per ESPN Analytics, with their lineup poised for a resurgence.

Prediction