© Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

 

MLB Picks for Today: Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Prediction - September 14, 2024

Introduction

The Chicago Cubs (75-72) face off against the Colorado Rockies (56-92) at Coors Field on September 14, 2024, as both teams look to gain momentum heading into the final stretch of the regular season. The Cubs, currently sitting second in the NL Central, are fighting to stay in the Wild Card race, while the Rockies are looking to play spoiler and end their season on a high note.

This game is critical for the Cubs, who have struggled on the road with a 37-39 away record. Meanwhile, the Rockies, despite their poor overall record, have been relatively competitive at home, holding a 33-37 record at Coors Field. Both teams will send veteran pitchers to the mound, with Jameson Taillon taking the ball for the Cubs and Kyle Freeland for the Rockies.

 

Odds Table

Team	Moneyline	Run Line	Over/Under
Chicago Cubs (75-72)	-160	-1.5 (EVEN)	O 10.5 (-125)
Colorado Rockies (56-92)	+135	+1.5 (-120)	U 10.5 (+105)

Interpretation: The Cubs are favored in this matchup with a moneyline of -160, reflecting their superior record and the Rockies’ struggles this season. The run line of -1.5 (EVEN) suggests confidence in a multi-run victory for Chicago. The over/under is set at 10.5, indicative of the hitter-friendly environment at Coors Field, where high-scoring games are common.

 

Team Analysis

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have had a solid season, currently holding a 75-72 record as they push for a playoff spot. Offensively, Ian Happ has been a key contributor, leading the team with 23 home runs and 81 RBIs. Seiya Suzuki has also been reliable, hitting .273 with a .350 OBP, providing stability in the middle of the lineup.

On the mound, Jameson Taillon will start for the Cubs. Taillon has been effective this season, posting a 10-8 record with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 146.1 innings. His ability to limit walks and keep the ball in the park will be crucial at Coors Field, where the thin air can turn routine fly balls into home runs.

The Cubs’ bullpen has been a strength this season, and they will likely be called upon to protect any lead Taillon can provide. The key for Chicago will be to give Taillon enough run support early in the game, allowing him to pitch with confidence and keep the Rockies’ hitters off balance.

Colorado Rockies

The Rockies have endured a tough season, reflected in their 56-92 record. However, they have shown they can still be competitive at home, particularly when their offense is firing. Michael Toglia has been one of the few bright spots, leading the team with 23 home runs, while Brenton Doyle has contributed 22 home runs and 67 RBIs, though both players have struggled with consistency.

Kyle Freeland will take the mound for the Rockies. Freeland has had an up-and-down season, with a 5-7 record and a 4.97 ERA. He has struggled with control at times, allowing 24 walks and 14 home runs over 96 innings. Pitching at Coors Field is always a challenge, and Freeland will need to keep the ball down in the zone to avoid giving up big innings to the Cubs’ potent lineup.

The Rockies’ bullpen has been inconsistent, which could be a liability if Freeland is unable to go deep into the game. Colorado will need its offense to step up and provide early run support to take some pressure off their pitching staff.

Starting Pitcher Analysis

Chicago Cubs - Jameson Taillon (RHP)

Jameson Taillon has been a dependable starter for the Cubs this season, with a 10-8 record and a 3.57 ERA. He has been effective at limiting damage, as evidenced by his 1.17 WHIP and only 28 walks over 146.1 innings. Taillon’s ability to mix pitches and change speeds has made him tough to hit, and his experience will be crucial in navigating the challenges of pitching at Coors Field.

Taillon’s fastball and curveball combination has been his bread and butter, and when he’s on, he can dominate opposing lineups. However, the thin air in Denver can be unforgiving, and Taillon will need to keep his pitches down and avoid giving up home runs. If he can do that, the Cubs will be in a strong position to win this game.

The Cubs will rely on Taillon to set the tone early, and if he can pitch deep into the game, it will ease the burden on the bullpen and increase Chicago’s chances of coming away with a victory.

Colorado Rockies - Kyle Freeland (LHP)

Kyle Freeland has had a challenging season, posting a 5-7 record with a 4.97 ERA. His struggles have been magnified at Coors Field, where his control issues and tendency to give up home runs have hurt him. Freeland will need to be at his best to keep the Cubs’ hitters in check, especially given the offensive firepower Chicago brings to the plate.

Freeland relies on a sinker-slider combination, with his sinker being his most effective pitch when he can locate it down in the zone. However, his slider has been inconsistent, and when it’s off, he can be hit hard. The key for Freeland will be to limit baserunners and keep the ball in the park, which is easier said than done at Coors Field.

For the Rockies to win, Freeland will need to pitch deep into the game and avoid the big inning. If he can keep the Cubs’ offense in check, it will give the Rockies a chance to pull off the upset.

Recent Performance

Chicago Cubs

Date	Opponent	Result
9/13/24	@COL	L 9-5
9/11/24	@LAD	L 10-8
9/10/24	@LAD	W 6-3
9/9/24	@LAD	W 10-4
9/8/24	vs NYY	W 2-1

The Cubs have gone 3-2 in their last five games, with notable wins against the Dodgers and Yankees. However, their loss to the Rockies in the series opener was a setback, particularly as their pitching staff struggled to contain Colorado's offense. The Cubs will need to bounce back quickly to avoid slipping further in the playoff race.

Colorado Rockies

Date	Opponent	Result
9/13/24	vs CHC	W 9-5
9/12/24	@DET	W 4-2
9/11/24	@DET	L 7-4
9/10/24	@DET	L 11-0
9/8/24	@MIL	W 4-1

The Rockies are 3-2 in their last five games, with a surprising win over the Cubs in the series opener. Their offense has been inconsistent, but when they are clicking, they can put up runs in bunches, as they did against Chicago. The key for the Rockies will be maintaining that offensive production and getting a solid performance from Freeland on the mound.

Head-to-Head Comparison

The Cubs and Rockies have faced off multiple times this season, with the Cubs generally having the upper hand. However, the Rockies took the first game of this series, showcasing their ability to capitalize on Chicago's mistakes. In head-to-head matchups at Coors Field, games have tended to be high-scoring, with both teams exploiting the hitter-friendly conditions.

The Cubs have the stronger overall roster, particularly in the pitching department, but the Rockies have shown they can be dangerous at home. The key for the Cubs will be to limit the Rockies' offense early and avoid falling into an early deficit, which has been a problem for them in recent losses.

Against the Spread (ATS) Records

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have a 76-71 ATS record this season, reflecting their ability to cover the spread in close games. On the road, they are 38-38 ATS, showing some inconsistency in their performances away from Wrigley Field. As favorites, the Cubs have a 51-42 ATS record, indicating they generally perform well when expected to win.

With Taillon on the mound, the Cubs are in a good position to cover the spread, especially if their offense can provide early run support. The key will be avoiding the defensive lapses and pitching struggles that have plagued them in recent losses.

Colorado Rockies

The Rockies have a 64-84 ATS record this season, reflecting their struggles in covering the spread. At home, they are 34-36 ATS, showing some improvement but still struggling to consistently win by large margins. As underdogs, the Rockies have a 52-74 ATS record, indicating their difficulties in competing against stronger teams.

Given the challenge of facing Taillon, the Rockies' chances of covering the spread are slim. However, if Freeland can keep the game close, the Rockies could potentially cover as home underdogs, particularly if the game turns into a high-scoring affair.

Betting Stats and Trends

Chicago Cubs

• The Cubs are 3-2 SU in their last 5 games.
• The total has gone over in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games.
• Chicago is 5-5 SU in their last 10 games against Colorado.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in 3 of their last 5 games.
• Chicago is 6-4 SU in their last 10 road games.

Colorado Rockies

• The Rockies are 3-2 SU in their last 5 games.
• The total has gone over in 3 of Colorado's last 5 games.
• Colorado is 3-7 SU in their last 10 games at home.
• The Rockies have hit the over in 4 of their last 6 games.
• Colorado is 2-8 SU in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.

 

Prediction

The Cubs are in a strong position to bounce back from their loss in the series opener. With Jameson Taillon on the mound and a potent offense behind him, Chicago should have the edge over the Rockies. While Colorado has shown they can be dangerous at home, their inconsistent pitching and the Cubs' superior roster make it likely that Chicago will come out on top in this matchup.

Expect a competitive game, but the Cubs should have enough firepower to secure the win and keep their playoff hopes alive.

Pick: Cubs -160