Red Sox vs Rays Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 8 (10/8): MLB

Red Sox vs Rays Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 8 (10/8): MLB

Credit: photo by Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports

Time 7:02 p.m. EST
Braves money line +119
Braves run line +1.5 (-170)
Brewers money line -142
Brewers run line -1.5 (+145)
Over / under 7.5 (+100)


Key stats
  Red Sox Rays
Record 93-71 101-62
Road / home record 43-39 53-29
Last 10 record 5-5 7-3
Streak 1L 1W
Over / under record 74-86-4 83-72-8
Runs / game 5.09 5.29
Runs allowed / game 4.61 3.99



Tonight we have game two of this ALDS between the Red Sox and Rays. The Rays took game one yesterday with a score of 5-0. The Rays showed that they have the elite pitching in this series and they have the better bats up and down the lineup to matchup with any of the arms that teams may throw at them. The Red Sox will will look to jump on a young inexperienced pitcher in Shane Baz to get themselves in the win column and even up this series before they head back to Boston.

The Red Sox enter this game after dropping game one lastnight to a tune of 5-0. They profile better today in a matchup against Shanze Baz as he his making his 4th career start and first career postseason appearance. They boast a quality lineup that comes into this game witha combined .218 ISO and .348 wOBA against right handed pitching this season. They will need Chris Sale to be elite today to have success in this game. They'll look to take game two and head back to Boston all even.

The Rays enter this game in good form as they continued some impressive ball yesterday taking game one 5-0. Their pitching has been on point all season and yesterday that trend continued. They have a great mix between left handed bats and right handed bats and matchup well against all arms. They will be putting Shane Baz on the mound today but if the young rigtht hander can't handle the pressue they will have no problem going to the bullpen to finish out this game. They will look to go up 2-0 in the series before heading to Boston for game three.


Pitching matchup

Red Sox

Chris Sale (5-1, 3.16 ERA) will be on the mound for the Red Sox for game two against the Rays. Sale has some postseason experience as he has a record of  1-2, 5.76 ERA, and 1.32 WHIP. Sale enters this game with a 1.34 WHIP and 3.38 XFIP. This season in a limited sample he has a 27.3% strikeout rate along with a 6.2% walk rate. Sale has faced this Rays team twice during the regular season going 9.2 innings, allowing three earned runs, while striking out nine. Sale has been decent since returing for the Red Sox, handling left handed hitters while struggling a bit against right handers in the split. This Rays team boasts a combined .227 ISO, .366 wOBA, and 22.3% strikeout rate against left handed pitching this season. He will need to be a bit better today against this Rays team if he plans to help Boston get into the win column.


Shane Baz (2-0, 2.03 ERA) will be on the mound for the Rays in game two against the Red Sox. The young 22 year old will be making his postseason debut today. Baz comes into this game with a 0.68 WHIP and 3.19 XFIP. In the 13.1 innings he has thrown this season he boasts a 36.7% strikeout rate along with a 6.1% walk rate. In the minors this season he posted a 5-4, 2.06 ERA, and a 0.80 WHIP in 78.2 innings of work, striking out 113 hitters in the process. Baz has been hit hard by left handed hitters so far in his time in the big leagues and could have some homerun problems until he fully settles in. His walk rate jumps dramatically against left handed hitters as well. He will have his hands full going up against an experienced team in the Red Sox that boast a combined .218 ISO, .348 wOBA, and 21.6% strikeout rate against right handed pitching this season.  


I'll be looking to target the total in this one as both teams profile well in their matchups tonight. Although Sale is an elite pitcher he has had some problems with right handed bats this season, something the Rays have plenty of. On the other side Baz will be making his postseason debut and I am sure the nerves will be there. I think both lineups will be able to put up some runs up early in this game and hit the over by the time all the dust settles.

PICK: Over 7.5  (+100)

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