New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, Pick and Preview, December 1 (12/1) NFL

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, Pick and Preview, December 1 (12/1) NFL

 

Odds

Time 8:15 p.m. EST
Bills money line -185
Bills spread -3.5 (-110)
Patriots money line +160
Patriots spread +3.5 (-110)
Over / under 43.5

 

2022 season stats

  Buffalo Bills New England Patriots
Record 8-3 6-5
Road / home record 4-2 3-2
Points per game 28.1 21.7
Points allowed per game 18.1 18.4
Pass yards per game 290.0 235.0
Rush yards per game 136.0 109.0
Total yards per game 426.0 344.0
Total yards allowed per game 345.0 329.0

 

Preview

The New England Patriots return home to host the Buffalo Bills at the Gillette Stadium. These teams faced each other 3 times last season and the Bills led 2-1, destroying the Pats in the wild card game 47-17.

 

Buffalo Bills

The Bills get here with a 8-3 record overall and are 4-2 on the road so far ranking 2nd in the AFC East. In their last game they beat the Detroit Lions 28-25 on the road. Allen completed 24 of 42 passes for 253 yards and a passing and rushing touchdown in the first half to more than make up for his season-high 11 interceptions. In his first five seasons in the NFL, he has scored 162 touchdowns, second only to Hall of Famer Dan Marino's 171 total.

Defensively the Bills are the 5th best in the league allowing only an average of 18.1 points and they also rank #8 against the run allowing only 105.6 rushing yards per game and 239 passing yards.

 

New England Patriots

The Patriots get here with 6-5 record and are 3-2 at home ranking 4th in the AFC East. Last week, they lost against the Vikings on the road 33-26. Mac Jones passed for a career-high 382 yards and two scores. He has completed more than 77% of his passes over the last two games. The Patriots' offensive line is currently battling with some injuries; center Davis Andrews is questionable after participating in just two restricted practices this week, 

The Patriots ranks #2 in defense and is allowing 18.4 points per game. They're giving up 220 passing yards per game and allowing an average of only 109.0 yards rushing per game.

 

BETTING TRENDS

New England are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 6 games against Buffalo.

The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 11 games at home.

New England are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games when playing at home against Buffalo.

Buffalo are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Buffalo's last 9 games.

Buffalo are 13-4 SU in their last 17 games.

Buffalo are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against New England

 

Prediction

The Bills have been on fire offensively in their last 3 games averaging 29.3 points per game but they haven't been that great in defense as they won only by 3 points last games vs Lions who scored 25 points. The Patriots allowed 3 points per game against the Colts and the Jets but struggled against the Vikings. These are two of the best defenses in the league so I expect a close and a low scoring game. Take the under. 

PICK: Under 43.5 (-110)

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