MLB Picks April 16, 2025: Best Bets & Player Props Today

Kingpin
Apr 16, 2025, 3:19:24 AM

MLB Picks Today (April 16, 2025): Best Bets & Predictions for Every Game

Welcome to our MLB picks for April 16, 2025. We break down 16 matchups on the Wednesday slate with confident best bets (moneylines or totals) and one top MLB player prop for each game. No fluff – just sharp MLB predictions for April 16 focusing on what’s likely to win. Whether you’re looking for the best MLB bets today or a few player props to target, we’ve got you covered for every matchup.

🔥 Join Kingpin and follow the top bettors beating the books! Get exclusive picks from **LM Tipster** (+45 units, 18% ROI), **Billy Locks** (+52 units, 20% ROI) and **BambinoBets** (+60 units, 22% ROI). Download the Kingpin app for Android or iOS now and start tailing their winning plays today!

Atlanta Braves at Toronto Blue Jays (1:07 PM ET)

Pitching Matchup: Spencer Strider (ATL) vs. Chris Bassitt (TOR)
The Braves come in as roughly -150 favorites behind ace Spencer Strider. Strider is a strikeout machine and one of MLB’s most dominant arms, so the Blue Jays will have their hands full. Toronto counters with veteran Chris Bassitt, a reliable innings-eater but not overpowering. The over/under is 7.5 runs, reflecting the quality arms on the mound. Atlanta’s offense (Acuña, Olson, Riley) has the firepower to back Strider, whereas the Jays lineup is dangerous but may struggle to string together rallies if Strider is on his game. We’re confident Atlanta’s ace gives them the edge in this matinee.

Best Bet: Braves moneyline (ATL) – Strider’s dominance should carry Atlanta to a win here, even on the road.

Player Prop: Spencer Strider over 8.5 strikeouts – Strider piles up Ks, and against a free-swinging Blue Jays lineup he should rack up 9+ punchouts.

Detroit Tigers at Milwaukee Brewers (1:10 PM ET)

Pitching Matchup: Reese Olson (DET) vs. José Quintana (MIL)
The Brewers are around -150 favorites at home with veteran lefty José Quintana on the hill. Quintana is a crafty pitcher who can keep the ball down and neutralize a lighter-hitting Tigers lineup. Detroit starts Reese Olson, a young right-hander who has shown flashes but is still inconsistent. The total is 7.5, suggesting a lower-scoring affair – not surprising given the Tigers’ offensive struggles. Milwaukee’s offense isn’t explosive, but they have the better lineup here with Christian Yelich, Willy Adames, and company capable of manufacturing runs. Olson could be vulnerable to some early damage, and the Brewers’ bullpen is solid enough to lock down a lead.

Best Bet: Brewers moneyline (MIL) – Back Milwaukee at home to take care of business behind the steadier arm and better offense.

Player Prop: Christian Yelich over 1.5 total bases – Yelich has been seeing the ball well. A couple of hard hits (a double or two singles) should cash this prop against Olson.

New York Mets at Minnesota Twins (1:10 PM ET)

Pitching Matchup: Mets: TBA (bullpen likely) vs. David Festa (MIN)
Minnesota is a slight favorite (~-130) in this matchup, as New York has yet to announce a starter and may go with a bullpen game or a call-up. The Twins will start rookie right-hander David Festa, who will be making one of his first big-league starts. The uncertainty on the Mets’ mound gives the Twins an edge, especially at home. Offensively, the Mets have big bats like Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor, but consistency has been an issue. The Twins lineup (Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, etc.) can capitalize on a patchwork Mets pitching plan. With an over/under around 8.5, oddsmakers expect a moderate number of runs. We lean Minnesota due to the Mets’ pitching question marks.

Best Bet: Twins moneyline (MIN) – Minnesota’s offense should take advantage of the Mets’ uncertain pitching situation and secure the win.

Player Prop: Pete Alonso to hit a home run – Alonso’s power is elite and he’s been hot at the plate. Facing a young pitcher, he’s a great bet to go deep in this afternoon game.

Houston Astros at St. Louis Cardinals (1:15 PM ET)

Pitching Matchup: Ronel Blanco (HOU) vs. Steven Matz (STL)
Houston enters as a slight road favorite (-115 range) in this matchup. The total is 8.5 runs, indicating we could see some offense. The Astros send out Ronel Blanco, a swingman with decent stuff but not a front-line starter. The Cardinals counter with lefty Steven Matz, who has been hit-or-miss. St. Louis’ lineup (Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado) hits well at home, but they were shut out 2-0 yesterday, raising concerns about consistency. On the other side, the Astros’ championship-caliber lineup featuring Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker poses a big threat to the often-inconsistent Matz. We like Houston’s matchup at the plate, as Alvarez in particular feasts on left-handed pitching. Look for the Astros to grind out at-bats and for Blanco to keep the Cards in check enough for Houston to prevail.

Best Bet: Astros moneyline (HOU) – Houston’s deeper lineup should outscore St. Louis, especially if they get into the Cardinals’ shaky bullpen.

Player Prop: Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases – Alvarez against a lefty might worry some, but he’s an all-world hitter. A couple of barrels (extra-base hit or multiple hits) are well within reach against Matz and the Cards’ relief corps.

Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres (4:10 PM ET)

Pitching Matchup: Matthew Boyd (CHC) vs. Nick Pivetta (SD)
San Diego is a home favorite (~-125 odds) in this late-afternoon tilt. The pitching matchup is unconventional: lefty Matthew Boyd goes for Chicago, while right-hander Nick Pivetta (now with the Padres) takes the mound for San Diego. The over/under is 7.5, implying a moderate scoring game, likely influenced by Petco Park’s pitcher-friendly dimensions. The Padres have a clear offensive advantage with stars like Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts in the lineup – they can put up runs in a hurry. Boyd is a serviceable lefty but will have a tough task containing San Diego’s right-handed power. Meanwhile, the Cubs’ offense is middle-of-the-pack and could struggle with Pivetta if he’s commanding his fastball and curve. We expect San Diego’s bats to be the difference here, especially after a quiet game yesterday.

Best Bet: Padres moneyline (SD) – San Diego’s lineup is too strong for Boyd, and Pivetta should deliver a solid outing to back the Padres at home.

Player Prop: Fernando Tatis Jr. over 1.5 total bases – Tatis can get this in one swing. Facing a lefty in Boyd, Tatis should see pitches to hit. A couple of knocks or an extra-base hit is a strong possibility.

Cleveland Guardians at Baltimore Orioles (6:35 PM ET)

Pitching Matchup: Gavin Williams (CLE) vs. Dean Kremer (BAL)
Baltimore is a slight favorite at home (-125 range) with a total of 8.5 runs projected. The Orioles have been playing confident baseball and their lineup has been productive, led by young stars like Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson. Dean Kremer takes the ball for Baltimore – he’s a competent right-hander who can be vulnerable to hard contact but usually gives decent length. Cleveland’s rookie Gavin Williams has electric stuff and could emerge as their ace in time; however, the Orioles will test the young pitcher with their aggressive bats. The Guardians’ offense tends to be light aside from José Ramírez, often relying on small ball to scratch out runs. Baltimore’s home field and the edge in firepower at the plate make us lean their way.

Best Bet: Orioles moneyline (BAL) – Baltimore’s bats and bullpen depth give them the nod in a close one at Camden Yards.

Player Prop: Adley Rutschman over 1.5 total bases – Rutschman is the engine of the O’s lineup. He’s a threat to rip a double into the gap each game. Back him to tally at least two bases (via two singles or a double) against the rookie pitcher.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins (6:40 PM ET)

Pitching Matchup: Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) vs. Max Meyer (MIA)
Arizona is a notable road favorite (-160 odds) as they send out right-hander Brandon Pfaadt against Miami’s young righty Max Meyer. The D-backs have started the season strong, and their offense is averaging over five runs per game. With talents like Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and veteran Evan Longoria (facing his former team’s city), Arizona can score in bunches. Max Meyer is a promising prospect for the Marlins, but he’s still finding his footing after coming back from injury; he could struggle against a dynamic Diamondbacks lineup. The Marlins, aside from Jazz Chisholm Jr. and a few others, have a weaker offense that often struggles to support their pitching. The over/under is 8.5, but if Pfaadt delivers a solid outing, the Marlins might not contribute much to that total. We’ll side with the more complete team here.

Best Bet: Diamondbacks moneyline (ARI) – The D-backs should capitalize on the pitching mismatch and outscore Miami comfortably.

Player Prop: Corbin Carroll over 1.5 total bases – The electrifying Carroll can get on base and has extra-base pop. Look for him to leg out a couple of hits (or maybe drill a gapper) to clear this number.

Seattle Mariners at Cincinnati Reds (6:40 PM ET)

Pitching Matchup: Bryce Miller (SEA) vs. Nick Martinez (CIN)
Seattle is favored on the road (~-125) with promising second-year righty Bryce Miller on the mound. The total is 8.5 runs, influenced in part by Great American Ball Park’s hitter-friendly reputation. Miller features a lively fastball and has shown he can dominate lineups that haven’t seen him much – the Reds fall into that category. Cincinnati counters with Nick Martinez, a veteran swingman who tends to be solid but unspectacular; Seattle’s lineup will view this as an opportunity to break out. Offensively, the Mariners have been underperforming early this season, but Julio Rodríguezremains a constant threat and the likes of Ty France and Teoscar Hernández can do damage as well. The Reds have exciting young players (Jonathan India, Elly De La Cruz), but they are prone to strikeouts and growing pains. We expect Miller’s quality to shine through and the Mariners to put up enough runs to support him.

Best Bet: Mariners moneyline (SEA) – Back Seattle’s superior pitching and experienced lineup to get the job done in Cincinnati.

Player Prop: Julio Rodríguez over 1.5 total bases – Julio’s slump-busting ability is second to none. He could easily notch a couple of singles or drive one to the wall in this hitter-friendly park. Bet on the Mariners’ superstar to deliver at least two bases worth of offense tonight.

Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates (6:40 PM ET)

Pitching Matchup: Mitchell Parker (WSH) vs. Bailey Falter (PIT)
In this matchup of rebuilding clubs, Pittsburgh is a slight favorite at home (-115 range). The Pirates have a bit more going for them offensively and are coming off a win last night. Bailey Falter, a lefty, takes the mound for Pittsburgh; he’s not overpowering, but he throws strikes and can navigate weaker lineups. The Nats start Mitchell Parker, a young left-hander who earned a rotation spot with a strong spring. The over/under is 8.5, and we could see both teams scratch across some runs given the modest pitching. Pittsburgh’s lineup, led by Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes (and potentially a healthy Oneil Cruz), has more pop than Washington’s, which is largely reliant on youngsters learning on the job. Neither bullpen is lockdown, but the Pirates have a small edge there too. This one might be scrappy, but we lean toward the home team to find a way.

Best Bet: Pirates moneyline (PIT) – Pittsburgh’s offense has a few more reliable bats, and Falter’s experience should help the Bucs secure a win in a close game.

Player Prop: Bryan Reynolds over 1.5 total bases – Reynolds, a switch-hitter, will bat right-handed against the Nats’ lefty. He’s a doubles machine and the Pirates’ best all-around hitter. Expect him to tally at least two bases (a double or a pair of hits) from the middle of the order.

San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies (6:45 PM ET)

Pitching Matchup: Robbie Ray (SF) vs. Aaron Nola (PHI)
This is one of the marquee pitching duels of the day. The Phillies are favored at home (-150 odds) and the over/under is just 7.5 runs, reflecting two high-caliber pitchers on the mound. Aaron Nola, the Phillies’ workhorse, is in ace form early this season, and he’ll look to stifle a Giants lineup that has surprised with power so far (they’re off to a hot start, leading their division). San Francisco acquired former Cy Young winner Robbie Ray, and the veteran lefty has looked sharp coming off injury rehab – he brings swing-and-miss stuff from the left side which could neutralize Philly’s lefty sluggers like Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. Philadelphia’s offense (Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto) is explosive, but they’re more subdued against left-handed pitching. Still, the likes of Turner and Nick Castellanos from the right side can do damage. This game likely comes down to which ace makes fewer mistakes. In a near toss-up, the Phillies’ familiarity with home conditions and Nola’s consistency give them the nod.

Best Bet: Under 7.5 runs – With Nola and Ray dueling, runs will be at a premium. We expect a low-scoring, tight game (something like 3-2 or 4-3 feels right), making the under the sharp play.

Player Prop: Trea Turner over 1.5 total bases – Turner’s right-handed bat matches up well against Robbie Ray. Whether it’s a couple of singles, a double, or some aggressive baserunning turning a single into two bases, Trea’s a good bet to accumulate at least 2 total bases tonight.

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (7:05 PM ET)

Pitching Matchup: Red Sox: TBA vs. Zack Littell (TB)
The Rays are home favorites around -135, and for good reason: they’re one of the best teams at the Trop, and Boston has a pitching question mark here. The Red Sox have not announced their starter – it could be an opener or a young call-up – which often spells trouble against a Rays lineup that thrives on attacking unproven arms. Tampa Bay goes with Zack Littell, a right-hander who transitioned from relief to starting; he’s been serviceable, usually pounding the zone. Boston’s lineup has been solid (Rafael Devers, Masataka Yoshida, Justin Turner provide a mix of power and contact), but facing the Rays in Tampa is always a challenge. The over/under is 8.5, and we anticipate the Rays doing most of that damage if they get to the Red Sox’s unknown starter early. Tampa Bay’s offense (Randy Arozarena, Brandon Lowe, Isaac Paredes) is balanced and patient, which should put pressure on whoever Boston trots out. Unless the Sox starter surprises, the Rays have the clear edge in this AL East showdown.

Best Bet: Rays moneyline (TB) – Tampa Bay at home against a to-be-determined pitcher is a scenario to back the more prepared and deeper team.

Player Prop: Randy Arozarena over 1.5 total bases – Arozarena is a spark plug for the Rays. He can beat you with power or speed. We like him to notch a couple of bases tonight, whether via a well-struck extra-base hit or multiple singles and aggressive running.

Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees (7:05 PM ET)

Pitching Matchup: Kris Bubic (KC) vs. Clarke Schmidt (NYY)
The Yankees are heavy favorites (-165 or higher) in this one, as they host the struggling Royals in prime time. New York sends Clarke Schmidt to the mound – the right-hander had a slow start to the season but is settling into a groove as a back-end starter. He should have a decent matchup here against a Kansas City lineup that has been inconsistent outside of Bobby Witt Jr. and perhaps Vinnie Pasquantino. The Royals will start lefty Kris Bubic, who is coming off Tommy John surgery and still finding his command. That’s a dangerous recipe against the Bronx Bombers. The total is 8.5 runs, and a lot of that could come from Yankee bats. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton salivate at facing lefties in Yankee Stadium’s short porch – we anticipate New York’s offense to flex their muscle. Kansas City’s young hitters might scratch a few runs off Schmidt or the middle relief, but they’re outgunned here.

Best Bet: Over 8.5 runs – The Yankees could cover this number on their own if they get rolling. Bubic is likely to get hit hard, and the Royals can chip in a couple of runs as well. We see a high-scoring game in the Bronx.

Player Prop: Aaron Judge to hit a home run – Judge against a finesse lefty in Yankee Stadium? Yes, please. The Yankees’ captain is the best MLB home run bet on the board today – look for him to launch one into the seats tonight.

Oakland Athletics at Chicago White Sox (7:40 PM ET)

Pitching Matchup: Osvaldo Bido (OAK) vs. Jonathan Cannon (CWS)
In a surprising twist, the Athletics are actually favored (around -155) on the road — a reflection of how poorly the White Sox are playing. Oakland has shown some fight, clobbering Chicago 12-3 last night, and they’ll try to keep momentum with right-hander Osvaldo Bido. Bido isn’t an ace by any means, but he throws a decent mid-90s sinker and could navigate a weak White Sox lineup. Chicago is giving the ball to Jonathan Cannon, a rookie righty making one of his first starts. Cannon is a talented prospect but might be thrown into the fire here without much major league seasoning. The White Sox offense, aside from Luis Robert Jr., has been lifeless – they’re missing timely hitting and haven’t solved even average pitchers lately. The over/under is just 7.5, indicating that neither team is expected to light it up offensively. In such games, a mistake or two can swing it. Given Oakland’s current form and slight edge in experience on the mound, we lean with the oddsmakers toward the A’s finding a way to win another low-scoring affair.

Best Bet: Under 7.5 runs – Both lineups are unreliable and each side is starting an unproven pitcher, which often leads to a cautious, low-scoring game. Expect a lot of zeros on the scoreboard in this matchup.

Player Prop: Luis Robert Jr. over 1.5 total bases – If anyone’s going to break through against Bido, it’s Robert. He’s virtually the lone bright spot for Chicago. We’ll bank on him muscling up for a couple of knocks (or one gapper) to reach two bases total, even if it comes in a losing effort.

Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers (8:05 PM ET)

Pitching Matchup: José Soriano (LAA) vs. Patrick Corbin (TEX)
This game has one of the day’s higher totals at 9.5 runs, and it’s easy to see why. The Rangers send out Patrick Corbin, the veteran lefty who has been hit hard the past couple of seasons. He’s now facing an Angels lineup featuring Mike Trout and company, which spells trouble for Texas if Corbin can’t locate. The Angels are slight favorites (-115) even on the road, as they counter with José Soriano, a young right-hander. Soriano has electric stuff but very limited MLB experience, so he’s something of a wildcard. Texas has a potent offense as well – Corey Seager and Marcus Semien lead a Rangers lineup that can put up crooked numbers, especially at Globe Life Field. The key here will be which shaky starter can minimize damage. Given Corbin’s track record of struggles (and high ERA) recently, the Angels have the offensive edge, and Trout & Co. should capitalize. We expect a lot of action on the basepaths and scoreboard in this one, possibly a back-and-forth slugfest.

Best Bet: Angels moneyline (LAA) – In a game likely decided by offense, trust the Angels’ star power (Trout, Rendon, and a scrappy supporting cast) to outslug the Rangers. Corbin simply hasn’t shown he can contain lineups of this caliber.

Player Prop: Mike Trout to hit a home run – The matchup is perfect for Trout. He’s facing a lefty in Corbin who tends to leave pitches over the plate. Trout’s been in great form and loves hitting in Arlington. Don’t be surprised if the three-time MVP puts one into the seats tonight.

Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 PM ET)

Pitching Matchup: Germán Márquez (COL) vs. Bobby Miller (LAD)
The Dodgers are the biggest favorites of the day (-300 and climbing), with good reason. They’re at home, they have a top prospect-turned-solid starter in Bobby Miller on the mound, and they boast one of baseball’s deepest lineups. The Rockies, by contrast, have struggled mightily away from Coors Field and send out Germán Márquez, their veteran right-hander. Márquez is capable of a strong outing but is often let down by Colorado’s defense and bullpen. The over/under is 8.5, and that could mostly be the Dodgers’ doing if things go as expected. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman have been crushing the ball, and young hitters like Miguel Vargas have started contributing as well. Miller has electric stuff and should handle a Rockies lineup that tends to fizzle on the road (they’re prone to strikeouts and don’t score nearly as much outside of Colorado). It’s hard to find a path for the Rockies here unless Márquez throws a gem and the Dodgers beat themselves. Los Angeles has won five straight games heading into tonight and will look to make it six with relative ease.

Best Bet: Dodgers -1.5 run line – While we normally stick to moneylines or totals, the Dodgers’ moneyline price is exorbitant. We’ll confidently take them to win by 2+ runs on the run line, as their talent gap over Colorado should result in a multi-run victory. (If you prefer a total, lean under 8.5, since the Rockies may barely score.)

Player Prop: Freddie Freeman over 1.5 total bases – Freeman’s consistency is unmatched. He’s batting well over .300 and driving balls gap-to-gap. Against Márquez, Freddie should tally at least two bases – whether via a pair of singles or a booming double, he’ll get his.