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MLB Expert Picks and Game Preview: Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction - September 13, 2024

Introduction

The Texas Rangers (71-76) will face off against the Seattle Mariners (74-73) at T-Mobile Park on September 13, 2024, in a pivotal American League West showdown. The Rangers, who are currently third in the division, are looking to close the gap with the second-place Mariners. With both teams still holding onto hopes of a late playoff push, this game carries significant implications.

In this game, all eyes will be on Jacob deGrom, who is set to make his much-anticipated return to the Rangers' rotation after completing a successful rehab stint in the minors. DeGrom's presence immediately elevates the Rangers’ chances of securing a win, as he remains one of the most dominant pitchers in the game when healthy. The Mariners, on the other hand, will counter with Emerson Hancock, who has had an up-and-down season and will face a tough task against a revitalized Rangers lineup.

Odds Table

Team	Moneyline	Run Line	Over/Under
Texas Rangers (71-76)	-130	-1.5 (+140)	O 6.5 (-130)
Seattle Mariners (74-73)	+110	+1.5 (-165)	U 6.5 (+110)

Interpretation: The Rangers are slight favorites with a moneyline of -130, largely due to the return of Jacob deGrom. The run line of -1.5 (+140) indicates confidence in a potential multi-run victory for Texas, while the over/under is set at a low 6.5, suggesting a potentially tight and low-scoring game. This line reflects the respect given to deGrom’s ability to shut down opposing lineups, even after a long layoff.

Team Analysis

Texas Rangers

The Rangers have had a challenging season, with a 71-76 record placing them third in the AL West. However, they’ve shown resilience and are coming off a 5-4 victory over the Mariners, which gives them some momentum heading into this matchup. Offensively, Corey Seager has been a standout, leading the team with 30 home runs and a .278 batting average. Alongside Adolis Garcia, who has 22 homers and 75 RBIs, the Rangers possess a lineup capable of producing runs in bunches.

The big news for Texas is the return of Jacob deGrom, who has been sidelined for most of the season. DeGrom’s dominance is well-documented, and his recent rehab outings in the minors have been impressive, showcasing his ability to command his pitches and overpower hitters. His fastball velocity and sharp breaking stuff were on full display, giving the Rangers a significant boost as they head into the final stretch of the season.

The Rangers’ bullpen has been a weak point, but with deGrom expected to go deep into the game, there should be less pressure on the relievers. If deGrom can pitch up to his usual standards, the Rangers will be in an excellent position to secure a win and potentially close the gap on the Mariners in the standings.

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners have had a solid but unspectacular season, sitting at 74-73 and second in the AL West. Cal Raleigh has been a bright spot offensively, leading the team with 30 home runs and 92 RBIs, though his .215 batting average highlights the Mariners’ struggles with consistency at the plate. Julio Rodriguez, while not having his best season, remains a key contributor with a .258 average.

Emerson Hancock will start for Seattle, bringing a 3-4 record with a 4.76 ERA into this game. Hancock has shown flashes of brilliance but has struggled with consistency, particularly in the later innings of games. His 1.32 WHIP indicates that he allows too many baserunners, which could be problematic against a Rangers lineup that is heating up at the right time.

The Mariners’ bullpen has been a strength, and they may be called upon early if Hancock struggles. However, the task of shutting down a lineup bolstered by deGrom’s return will be challenging. The Mariners will need to capitalize on any opportunities they get against deGrom, as runs could be hard to come by in this matchup.

Starting Pitcher Analysis

Texas Rangers - Jacob deGrom (RHP)

Jacob deGrom's return to the mound is the headline of this matchup. Despite missing significant time this season, deGrom remains one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. His minor league rehab starts were encouraging, with deGrom displaying his usual velocity and command. Over his career, deGrom has consistently posted sub-3.00 ERAs, and his ability to miss bats is unparalleled, as evidenced by his career K/9 rate of over 11.

In this game, deGrom will look to reestablish himself as the ace of the Rangers' staff. His fastball-slider combination is devastating, and if he can command his pitches, he has the potential to shut down the Mariners' offense completely. The key for deGrom will be avoiding any rust after the long layoff and ensuring his pitch count is managed carefully to avoid overexertion in his first start back.

DeGrom’s presence also gives the Rangers a psychological edge, as his reputation alone can intimidate opposing hitters. If he can go deep into the game and hand the ball off with a lead, the Rangers will be in prime position to secure a win.

Seattle Mariners - Emerson Hancock (RHP)

Emerson Hancock has had an up-and-down season for the Mariners, posting a 3-4 record with a 4.76 ERA. While he has shown promise at times, Hancock has struggled with consistency, particularly in high-leverage situations. His 1.32 WHIP suggests that he allows too many baserunners, and against a potent Rangers lineup, this could be a recipe for disaster.

Hancock relies on a fastball-changeup combination, but his secondary pitches have not been as effective as he would like. To be successful against the Rangers, Hancock will need to locate his pitches perfectly and avoid leaving anything over the middle of the plate, especially against power hitters like Seager and Garcia.

The Mariners will likely keep Hancock on a short leash, with the bullpen ready to step in if he struggles early. However, with deGrom on the mound for the Rangers, the margin for error is slim. Hancock will need to bring his best stuff to give the Mariners a chance to compete in this game.

Recent Performance

Texas Rangers

Date	Opponent	Result
9/12/24	@SEA	W 5-4
9/11/24	@ARI	L 14-4
9/10/24	@ARI	L 6-0
9/8/24	vs LAA	W 7-4
9/7/24	vs LAA	W 6-4

The Rangers are 3-2 in their last five games, bouncing back from a couple of tough losses to Arizona with a win over Seattle. Their offense has been inconsistent, scoring just four runs in two games against Arizona before breaking out for five runs in their win over the Mariners. The addition of deGrom to the rotation should help stabilize the team as they make a push for a strong finish to the season.

Seattle Mariners

Date	Opponent	Result
9/12/24	vs TEX	L 5-4
9/11/24	vs SD	W 5-2
9/10/24	vs SD	L 7-3
9/8/24	@ STL	W 10-4
9/7/24	@ STL	L 2-0

The Mariners are 3-2 in their last five games, with their offense showing flashes of potential but also struggling at times. Their 5-4 loss to the Rangers in the series opener was a close contest, but they will need to improve their run production if they hope to even the series. Hancock’s performance will be key in keeping the Mariners in the game, but the offense must find a way to generate consistent scoring opportunities.

Head-to-Head Comparison

The Rangers and Mariners have faced each other multiple times this season, with Texas holding a slight edge in the season series. The games have generally been close, with both teams relying on their pitching to keep scores low. However, the return of deGrom tilts the balance in favor of the Rangers, who now have a true ace to lead their rotation.

The Mariners have struggled against top-tier pitching this season, and deGrom represents a significant challenge. The Rangers’ ability to generate offense early in games has often set the tone for their victories, and they will look to do the same in this matchup. The Mariners will need to capitalize on any mistakes by deGrom and avoid falling behind early if they want to stay competitive.

Against the Spread (ATS) Records

Texas Rangers

The Rangers have a 73-74 ATS record this season, reflecting their inconsistency in covering the spread. On the road, they are 35-37 ATS, indicating that they have struggled to win by large margins away from home. As favorites, their record is 47-49 ATS, which shows that while they often win, they do not always cover the run line.

With deGrom on the mound, the Rangers’ chances of covering the spread increase, especially if he can deliver a dominant performance. The key will be whether the offense can provide enough run support to secure a multi-run victory.

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners have a 70-77 ATS record this season, which highlights their struggles in covering the spread. At home, they are 36-36 ATS, showing some inconsistency in winning by large margins. As underdogs, the Mariners have a 31-42 ATS record, reflecting their difficulties in competing against stronger teams.

Given the challenge of facing deGrom, the Mariners’ chances of covering the spread are slim. However, if Hancock can keep the game close, the Mariners could potentially cover as home underdogs, particularly if the game turns into a low-scoring affair.

Betting Stats and Trends

Texas Rangers

• The Rangers are 4-6 SU in their last 10 games.
• The total has gone under in 4 of Texas' last 6 games.
• Texas is 3-2 SU in their last 5 games against Seattle.
• The Rangers have covered the run line in 3 of their last 5 games.
• Texas is 8-2 SU in games where deGrom starts this season.

Seattle Mariners

• The Mariners are 5-5 SU in their last 10 games.
• The total has gone over in 6 of Seattle's last 8 home games.
• Seattle is 2-3 SU in their last 5 games against Texas.
• The Mariners have hit the over in 4 of their last 6 games.
• Seattle is 7-3 SU in their last 10 home games.

 

Prediction