MLB Picks May 21, 2025 – Best Bets & Player Props

Wednesday’s MLB slate is packed with value across early and late games. From pitcher duels in the Bronx to offensive outbursts at Coors, our Kingpin AI model has run the numbers to highlight the day’s top best bets and player props. Let’s get to it.

 

⚾ Yankees vs Rangers (4:05 PM CT)

Pitching Matchup: Jacob deGrom (TEX) vs Ryan Yarbrough (NYY)

deGrom is back in elite form, and Yarbrough struggles with power lineups. Expect the Rangers to bounce back and control the mound early.

Best Bet: Rangers Moneyline (+100)

Top Prop: Jacob deGrom Over 7.5 Strikeouts

Prediction: Rangers 4, Yankees 2

⚾ Reds vs Pirates (9:35 AM CT)

Pitching Matchup: Brady Singer (CIN) vs Andrew Heaney (PIT)

Heaney has quietly been sharp, and Singer’s 5.01 ERA suggests regression looms. Pittsburgh can capitalize at home.

Best Bet: Pirates Moneyline (-115)

Top Prop: Ke’Bryan Hayes Over 1.5 Total Bases

Prediction: Pirates 5, Reds 3

⚾ Cubs vs Marlins (10:10 AM CT)

Pitching Matchup: Cade Horton (CHC) vs Max Meyer (MIA)

The Cubs have been crushing right-handers and Horton’s ERA is inflated, but the Marlins struggle against power bats.

Best Bet: Over 8.5 Total Runs

Top Prop: Christopher Morel Over 1.5 Total Bases

Prediction: Cubs 6, Marlins 5

⚾ Astros vs Rays (10:10 AM CT)

Pitching Matchup: Hunter Brown (HOU) vs Taj Bradley (TB)

Brown is dominating in 2025 with a 1.43 ERA. Tampa Bay’s lineup has been underwhelming and struggles vs high-velocity arms.

Best Bet: Astros -1.5 Run Line (+120)

Top Prop: Hunter Brown Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Prediction: Astros 5, Rays 2

⚾ Tigers vs Cardinals (10:15 AM CT)

Pitching Matchup: Blake Hurter (DET) vs Andre Pallante (STL)

Hurter is a rising star, and Detroit has been sneaky-good on the road. Cards’ offense has been inconsistent.

Best Bet: Tigers Moneyline (+105)

Top Prop: Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 Total Bases

Prediction: Tigers 4, Cardinals 3

⚾ Phillies vs Rockies (7:05 PM CT)

Pitching Matchup: Taijuan Walker (PHI) vs Carson Palmquist (COL)

Palmquist has an 11.25 ERA, and the Phillies are hot. Even at Coors, this looks like a blowout spot.

Best Bet: Phillies -1.5 Run Line (-110)

Top Prop: Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 Total Bases

Prediction: Phillies 10, Rockies 4

⚾ Diamondbacks vs Dodgers (7:10 PM CT)

Pitching Matchup: Corbin Burnes (ARI) vs Dustin May (LAD)

Burnes has been sharp, but facing LA’s deep lineup on the road is a tall order. May may give up runs but the Dodgers’ offense is more reliable.

Best Bet: Over 8 Runs

Top Prop: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases

Prediction: Dodgers 5, D-backs 4

📌 Other Notable Bets

• Mariners vs White Sox: Under 7.5 Runs; Logan Evans Over 5.5 K’s
• Guardians vs Twins: Twins Moneyline (-125); Carlos Correa Over 0.5 HR
• Mets vs Red Sox: Red Sox Moneyline (-110); Garrett Crochet Over 7.5 K’s
• Padres vs Blue Jays: Padres Moneyline (+110); Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases
• Angels vs Athletics: Over 8 Runs; Jo Adell Over 1.5 Total Bases
• Royals vs Giants: Giants -1.5 Run Line; Logan Webb Over 6.5 K’s