How I made $61,060 at MLB Betting (PROOF!)
- Pro Bets 2k
- Jun 29, 2022, 12:53:22 PM
So, I’ve been recording my MLB Picks for two seasons on Kingpin.pro. I'm currently the #1 MLB Expert. It wasn’t until the end of last season, when the team at Kingpin approached me to come write for them, that I realized I really had an untapped talent.
Fast forward to today, I currently have $61,060 in recorded winnings on Kingpin. Each pick that I place is at $1,000. So, that’s equivalent to being up 61.060 units. $100 bettor, would be up $6,106. $10 Bettor would be up $610.60. You get the picture.
Along the way, I've learned some big nuggets of information. Many people out their fancy themselves as being a good predictor of sports. They probably are. But, a few things get in their way. Here are my suggestions on how to beat the sports book:
Find the Best Lines
One thing I noticed as being a Kingpin Handicapper (currently the #1 MLB Expert), is that Kingpin defaults to the best lines for each game. You can switch through and see the other lines. I always wondered why they don’t publicize which sports book is giving those lines. So, I asked my boss, Neil, over at Kingpin. He said, at this point he doesn’t want to promote the sports books. I get it, we are against the sports books, so why promote them?
So, I started shopping for lines when placing my own bets. I found, that on average, I was getting about 5% more return by shopping for lines.
Look for underdogs
Should you be betting +300 underdogs? Well, maybe there’s value on them. Typically, the sports books aren’t that far off on where they make the odds. Over my 551 MLB Bets, my average bet is +130. That makes sense. I’m finding teams that are slightly under valued. My win % isn’t in the 70%. It’s 51%. But, if I’m getting 130% ROI on each winning bet, that 51% is amazing.
Prepare for big swings
I’m currently up 37 units in the 2022 season. I was up 24 units in the 2021 season. Am I that much better this season, then I was last season? No. In fact, some could argue this year has been much tougher to bet dogs. I’m definitely preparing for some regression of the rest of the MLB season. I don’t plan on changing my strategy or my bet size.
Don’t worry about the Public betting numbers
People make way too much about the public betting numbers. Many platforms like the Action Network, sports line, etc put out public betting %. First, the Public is actually correct more often than not. Looking back on the 2021 NFL season, the public correctly picked spreads roughly 52% of the time. So, blindly betting against the public is silly. In fact, you actually want to side with the public on many plays. Remember, if you bet $100 on a NFL spread at -110, you get $91 in return. So, hitting 52% of your bets, and losing 48% has a negative ROI of about .007 units per bet. That’s enough for the sports books to be profitable. You also don’t know where the public came in at. Let’s say the Tigers are playing the Nationals. 70% of the money is on the Tigers. But, did that 70% come in when the line was +110 for the tigers or when it was +150. You don’t know, and the sports books will never tell you.
Unless you have some model that shows correlation between betting % at specific lines, it’s useless information. I’d be more apt to following the public if I have a strong signal about a bet already, then to fade it. But, I don’t use the public numbers. Never will, never have.
Don’t be a full time bettor
Don’t quit your day job. Betting is for fun, and meant to be done responsibly. If you’re trying to be a millionaire from sports betting - just Venmo me all your cash. You’ll go broke.
Can I give you an accurate unit size? Yes. I’d recommend 1/50th of your bankroll. Playing with $1k in your account? $20 bets.
$10k? $200 bets
$100k? $2,000 bets.
I’ve made over $61,000 on Kingpin at MLB Betting. If you like my plays, please follow my picks and bet responsibly.