Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets Prediction, Pick and Preview, July 4 (7/4): MLB

Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets Prediction, Pick and Preview, July 4 (7/4): MLB

Credit: photo by Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

 

Odds

Time 6:40 p.m. EST
Mets money line -165
Mets run line -1.5 (-110)
Reds money line +139
Reds run line +1.5 (-110)
Over / under 9.5

 

Key stats

  New York Mets Cincinnati Reds
Record 49-30 27-51
Road / home record 23-17 13-25
Last 10 record 4-6 4-6
Streak W1 W1
Over / under record 41-33-5 43-34-1
Runs / game 4.77 4.29
Runs allowed / game 4.05 5.55

 

Preview

The New York Mets visit the Cincinnati Reds to play a 3-game series at the Great American Ball Park. The Mets won their last series against the Texas Rangers while the Reds lost 2 of 3 games against the Atlanta Braves.

New York Mets

The Mets get here with a 49-30 record and have lost 4 of their last 6 games. The team is averaging 4.77 runs per game. They're batting for .256 AVG, 377 runs scored in 679 hits and 76 home runs, ranking #4 in offense in the league behind the Philadelphia Phillies. Jeff McNeil is batting for .317 AVG while Pete Alonso leads with 22 home runs and 69 RBI.

Defensively they are allowing 4 runs per game and rank #10 in the league. Chris Bassit leads the pitching staff with a 4.01 ERA, 95 strikeouts and 6 wins recorded with the NY Mets.

Probable Pitcher:  Taijuan Walker (6-2, 2.72 ERA)

Walker will be on the mound in the 1st game of the series for the Mets. On Wednesday against the Astros, Walker pitched 7.1 scoreless innings while giving up four hits, two walks, and three strikeouts. He did not factor in the decision. He hasn't pitched against the Reds since 2017 where he took the loss allowing 5 runs in 5 innings.

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds get here with a 27-51 record and have lost 4 of their last 5 games. The team is averaging 4.29 runs. They're batting for .240 AVG, 335 runs scored in 617 hits and 71 home runs, ranking #16 in offense in the league behind the Cleveland Guardians. Brandon Dury leads the team with 42 RBI and 16 home runs. Kyle Farmer is batting for .280 AVG.

Defensively they are allowing 5.55 runs per game and rank #30, the worst in the league. Tyler Mahle leads the pitching staff with a 4.48 ERA, 102 strikeouts and 3 wins recorded with the Reds.

Probable Pitcher: 

Hunter Greene (3-9, 5.72 ERA) will take the mound in the 1st game of the series for the Reds. On Wednesday, Greene faced the Cubs and went four innings while giving up three runs on two hits, two walks, and five strikeouts. He hasn't pitched against the Mets in his career.

BETTING TRENDS

The total has gone OVER in 6 of NY Mets' last 9 games on the road.

New York Mets are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati.

Cincinnati Reds are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games at home.

The total has gone OVER in 9 of Cincinnati's last 11 games played on a Monday when at home.

Prediction

The Mets have dominated the Reds as they are 14-6 in their last 20 games against them. They'll send Taijuan Walker who's coming from an oustanding performance against the Astros where he tossed 7.1 scoreless innings. The Reds have struggled at home losing 10 of their last 11 games there and have the worst defense in the league allowing 5.55 runs per game. They'll send Hunter Greene to the mound who has a hell of an arm but his fastball is getting pounded. He has allowed 14 runs in his last 3 starts. Expect the Mets to get Greene fastball and Walker to dominate the Reds. Take the Mets.

PICK: Mets -1.5 (-110)

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