Kingpin analysis
Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Over/Under Prediction 8/31

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Over/Under Prediction 8/31
Read our expert over/under pick for the Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers game on August 31. Get the latest odds, betting trends, and in-depth team analysis.
Game Summary
The Cincinnati Reds will host the Milwaukee Brewers on August 31 at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. This matchup features two teams with contrasting seasons so far. The Reds hold a record of 64-72, while the Brewers boast a much stronger record at 79-56. This game is critical for both teams; the Reds are looking to improve their standing in the Central Division, while the Brewers aim to solidify their playoff position.
In their last encounter, the Brewers edged the Reds with a narrow 1-0 victory, showcasing their ability to win tight games. The Reds have struggled to find consistency, especially in their pitching rotation, where Fernando Cruz has been a frequent starter but has not delivered reliable performances, recording a 5.17 ERA this season. On the other hand, Frankie Montas of the Brewers, although not perfect with a 4.64 ERA, has shown the capability to keep opponents in check, making him a formidable challenge for the Reds.
Analyzing recent performances, the Reds have had a mixed bag of results, recently losing to the Brewers and falling short against other teams. Their offense has been underwhelming, which puts pressure on their pitching staff to keep games low-scoring. The Brewers, in contrast, have demonstrated a more balanced attack, combining solid pitching and timely hitting, which reinforces their status as favorites in this matchup.
Weather conditions for the game are expected to be cloudy with a temperature around 79°F. This could affect the ball’s carry and overall gameplay, making the over/under bet a key focus for bettors. Analyzing both teams' offensive and pitching stats reveals the potential for a low-scoring affair, especially given Cruz's tendency to give up runs and Montas's ability to limit scoring when on his game.
Odds and Betting Lines
| Bet Type | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over | -114 |
| Under | -106 |
Pitching Probables
| Pitcher | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | H | K | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Cruz (CIN) | 3-8 | 5.17 | 1.37 | 55.2 | 47 | 85 | 29 | 7 |
| Frankie Montas (MIL) | 6-9 | 4.64 | 1.38 | 120.1 | 115 | 106 | 51 | 16 |
Team Previews
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds have faced challenges this season, particularly with their pitching staff. Fernando Cruz, the starting pitcher for this game, has struggled with a 5.17 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. Despite having a solid strikeout rate with 85 strikeouts in just over 55 innings, he has also given up 29 walks, which can be detrimental against a disciplined Brewers lineup. The Reds' bullpen has been inconsistent, contributing to their overall struggles. Offensively, the Reds rank 14th in runs scored with 604 but have a low batting average of .232, indicating difficulties in getting on base consistently.
Key players like Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer have shown potential, with De La Cruz leading the team with a batting average of .266 and Steer contributing significantly with 83 RBIs. However, the lack of depth in hitting has hindered their performance against stronger pitching teams.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers come into this game with a stronger overall performance. With a 3.67 ERA, their pitching staff ranks 3rd in the league, and Frankie Montas has been a reliable arm despite some ups and downs. Montas has been effective at limiting hard contact, but he must avoid giving up the long ball, having allowed 16 home runs this season. Offensively, the Brewers are ranked 10th in runs scored with 641 and boast a solid batting average of .253. Willy Adames and William Contreras lead the way, with Adames hitting 26 home runs and driving in 92 runs, making them critical components of the lineup.
The Brewers' ability to manufacture runs and maintain pressure on the opposing pitchers will be vital in this matchup, especially as they look to capitalize on Cruz’s struggles on the mound.
Team Injuries
Cincinnati Reds
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Espinal | 3B | Foot | Probable for Aug 31 |
| Brett Kennedy | RP | Undisclosed | Expected to be out until at least Aug 30 |
Milwaukee Brewers
| Player Name | Position | Injury | Injury Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio | LF | Ankle | Probable for Aug 31 |
Betting Trends
- The Reds are 2-5 in their last 7 games overall.
- The Brewers are 5-2 in their last 7 games against the Reds.
- Cincinnati has gone under in 4 of their last 6 games.
- Milwaukee has gone over in 4 of their last 6 games against teams with losing records.
- The total has gone under in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 home games.
Recent Games
Cincinnati Reds
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| @ Milwaukee | L8-3 | L |
| @ Milwaukee | L1-0 | L |
| @ Miami | W10-3 | W |
| @ Miami | W8-2 | W |
| @ Miami | L6-4 | L |
Milwaukee Brewers
| Opponent | Score | W/L |
|---|---|---|
| vs Cincinnati | W8-3 | W |
| vs Cincinnati | W1-0 | W |
| vs Los Angeles | L5-2 | L |
| vs Los Angeles | L7-2 | L |
| vs Los Angeles | W5-4 | W |
Team Rankings
| Team | Hitting | Starting Pitching | Relief Pitching | Fielding |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 26th | 17th | 28th | Tied-4th |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 8th | 3rd | 4th | Tied-19th |
Significant Betting Stats
- The Reds are 2-5 in their last 7 games against the Brewers.
- The total has gone under in 4 of the last 5 games for the Reds.
- Milwaukee is 5-1 in their last 6 games overall.
- The Brewers have a winning percentage of .579 on the road this season.
- Cincinnati is 31-38 at home this year.
- Milwaukee has gone under in 4 of their last 5 away games.
- Fernando Cruz has allowed 85 strikeouts in 55.2 innings this season.
- Frankie Montas has allowed 115 hits in 120.1 innings pitched.
- The Reds have hit 22 home runs from Elly De La Cruz this season.
- The Brewers have 26 home runs from Willy Adames this season.
Weather
Cloudy with a temperature of 79°F.
Prediction
Both teams are struggling offensively, with the Reds having a low batting average and the Brewers facing challenges against left-handed pitching. Given the starting pitchers' stats and the recent performances, the under seems to be a strong play. The Reds' struggles to score runs will likely continue against Montas, while Cruz's inconsistency makes it hard to predict a high-scoring game.
Pick: Under 9.0 runs
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