Brewers vs Tigers Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 14 (9/14): MLB

Brewers vs Tigers Prediction, Pick and Preview, September 14 (9/14): MLB

Credit: photo by Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

 
Odds
Time 6:40 p.m. EST
Brewers money line -210
Brewers run line -1.5 (-130)
Tigers money line +170
Tigers run line +1.5 (+110)
Over / under 9 (+100)

 

Key stats
  Brewers Tigers
Record 89-55 68-76
Road / home record 49-24 37-36
Last 10 record 7-3 5-5
Streak 5W 1W
Over / under record 66-68-10 64-75-5
Runs / game 4.67 4.40
Runs allowed / game 3.72 4.79

 

Preview

Tonight the Brewers travel to Detroit to take on the Tigers. The Brewers enter this game with a firm grasp on the top spot in the NL Central, 14 games ahead of the Reds. They've been cruising of late going 7-3 in their last 10 games, and winning 5 straight coming into this game. Look for them to continue their winning ways while they get ready for the postseason. The Tigers enter this game firmly out of the playoffs as they sit 12 games back of a wildcard spot.  Though they have surpised many this year they just still don't have the pieces to compete night in and night out with some of these top teams.

Pitching matchup

Brewers

Freddy Peralta (9-4, 2.69 ERA) will take the bump when the Brewers take on the Tigers.  Peralta enters this game with a 0.98 WHIP and 4.03 XFIP, both good numbers. This season he carries a superb 34.1% strikeout rate along with a high 11.1% walk rate.  Peralta has been electric this year with his stuff.  In his last start Peralta only threw 81 pitches as he works his way back from a shoulder injury. In his two starts since returning he has gone 5.2 innings, striking out 8 hitters, while allowing 5 earned runs.  I can see the Brewers being cautious in this one and not pushing him as they have a solid hold atop the division and want him healthy for the postseason.  Still Peralta needs to work himself back to full strength so look for him to go longer in this one against a stikeout heavy Tigers team.

Tigers

Wily Peralta (3-3, 3.60 ERA) will be on the mound for the Tigers when they take on the Brewers.  Peralta enters this game with a 1.31 WHIP and 5.15 XFIP. He carries a low 15.2% strikeout rate paired with an 8.9% walk rate. Peralta started off the year on a strong note but he was always due to regress according to the numbers, and now we are finally seeing it play out in his last few starts.  Peralta relies too much on his defense to get outs as he allows to much contact and power to opposing hitters.  He will have his work cut out for him in this one as he takes on a hot Brewers team who are 7-3 in their last 10 games.

Prediction

Freddy Peralta has been great this year and although he is working his way back from injury, he was able to settle down a bit in his last start and I expect the same in this game.  He should be able to go 5-6 innings if his command is there.  Wily Peralta has been a candidate for regression and it's been happening his last few outtings.  I'll take the better pitching and hitting in this one as the Brewers should pick up and easy win here.

PICK: Brewers -1.5 (-130)

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