Braves vs Pirates Prediction MLB Picks Today 6/28

Braves vs Pirates Prediction MLB Picks Today 6/28

© Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports


MLB Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves

On June 28, 2024, the Pittsburgh Pirates will take on the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park. This preview covers the teams' recent performances, pitching matchups, and key players.


Game Overview:

  • Date: June 28, 2024
  • Time: 4:20 PM
  • Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia

Team Breakdown:

Pittsburgh Pirates:

The Pittsburgh Pirates come into this game with a 39-41 record, including a 20-21 record on the road. They are currently third in the National League Central division and have won two of their last three games.


Martin Perez will start for the Pirates. Perez has a 1-3 record with a 4.71 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP over 57.1 innings pitched. He has struggled with allowing baserunners this season, which could be exploited by the Braves' offense.

Recent Performance:

The Pirates have shown variability in their recent games, alternating wins and losses. Their offense has been inconsistent, scoring as much as 9 runs in a win against Cincinnati but being held to 1 run in a loss to Tampa Bay.

Key Players:

  • Home Runs: Bryan Reynolds (13 HR)
  • Batting Average: Bryan Reynolds (.279 AVG)
  • Runs Batted In: Bryan Reynolds (46 RBI)

The Pirates are managing injuries to Martin Perez, Henry Davis, Dennis Santana, Joey Bart, and Hunter Stratton, which affects their depth in both pitching and batting.

Atlanta Braves:

The Atlanta Braves hold a 44-35 record, including a strong 24-13 record at home. They are currently second in the National League East division and have won three of their last five games.


Charlie Morton will start for the Braves. Morton has a 4-4 record with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 79.1 innings pitched. He has been solid but also prone to giving up runs, which could be a factor in this matchup.

Recent Performance:

The Braves have had mixed results in their recent games, with their offense scoring 6 and 2 runs in wins against St. Louis, but being limited to 1 run in a loss to the Yankees.

Key Players:

  • Home Runs: Marcell Ozuna (21 HR)
  • Batting Average: Marcell Ozuna (.303 AVG)
  • Runs Batted In: Marcell Ozuna (64 RBI)

The Braves are coping with injuries to A.J. Minter, Luis Liberato, Jimmy Herget, Brian Anderson, and Hurston Waldrep, which may impact their bullpen depth.

Game Odds:

Team Moneyline Total Run Line
PIT (39-41) +155 o8.5 (-120) +1.5 (-130)
ATL (44-35) -185 u8.5 (EVEN) -1.5 (+110)



Considering the matchup between Martin Perez and Charlie Morton, and the recent performances of both teams, the pick for this game is the over on 8.5 runs. Martin Perez, starting for the Pirates, has struggled this season with a 4.71 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP, indicating vulnerability to allowing runs.

Charlie Morton, while more solid with a 4.20 ERA, has also shown susceptibility to giving up runs. Both teams have shown the ability to score runs recently, with the Pirates scoring 6, 9, and 5 runs in their last three games, and the Braves scoring 6, 2, and 4 runs in their recent performances.

Key offensive players like Bryan Reynolds for the Pirates and Marcell Ozuna for the Braves have the potential to impact the scoreline significantly. Given the pitching vulnerabilities and offensive capabilities of both teams, the game is likely to surpass the total of 8.5 runs.

Pick: Over 8.5 runs (-120)

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