UFC Best Bets - August 22, 2026

UFC best bets for August 22, 2026. This card covers all 27 scheduled games and ranks the bets from strongest to weakest. The order matters: the first plays have the best mix of price and current win probability.

Use the listed sportsbook price as the target. A worse line can wipe out the value, especially on favorites and alternate spreads. Odds move throughout the day, so compare books before placing anything.

UFC best bets ranked

1. #1 Terrance Chatman vs Anthony Wint: Terrance Chatman at +750
2. #2 Roland Dunlap vs Luke Trainer: Roland Dunlap at +383
3. #3 Lerryan Douglas vs Jamall Emmers: Jamall Emmers at +340
4. #4 Ketlen Vieira vs Cris Cyborg: Ketlen Vieira at +383
5. #5 Elise Reed vs Shanelle Dyer: Elise Reed at +610
6. #6 Roman Dolidze vs Reinier de Ridder: Roman Dolidze at +340
7. #7 Jeisla Chaves vs Carli Judice: Jeisla Chaves at +460
8. #8 James Vake vs Eoin Sheridan: James Vake at +560
9. #9 Ryan Kuse vs Márcio Barbosa: Ryan Kuse at +610
10. #10 Gregory Rodrigues vs Anthony Hernandez: Gregory Rodrigues at +185
11. #11 Mason Jones vs Marquel Mederos: Marquel Mederos at +290
12. #12 Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev: Kennedy Nzechukwu at +120
13. #13 Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey: Over 1.5 at +165
14. #14 Vitor Petrino vs Sergey Spivak: Under 1.5 at +183
15. #15 Nkosi Ndebele vs Marcirley Alves da Silva: Nkosi Ndebele at +174
16. #16 Makkasharip Zaynukov vs Natan Schulte: Natan Schulte at +157
17. #17 Sabrinna de Sousa vs Taila Santos: Taila Santos at -160
18. #18 Daniel Marcos vs Magomed Magomedov: Daniel Marcos at -150
19. #19 Robert Watley vs Gino van Steenis: Robert Watley at +157
20. #20 Joaquin Buckley vs Tyron Woodley: Tyron Woodley at -170
21. #21 Morquez Forest vs Dakota Bush: Dakota Bush at -200
22. #22 Javid Basharat vs Movsar Ibragimov: Movsar Ibragimov at +205
23. #23 Omran Chaaban vs Florim Zendeli: Omran Chaaban at -140
24. #24 Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast: Over 2.5 at -200
25. #25 Henry Cejudo vs Merab Dvalishvili: Henry Cejudo at +101
26. #26 Stan Dorsainvil vs Gauge Young: Gauge Young at -159
27. #27 Tracy Reeder vs Gadzhi Rabadanov: Gadzhi Rabadanov at -2200

#1 Terrance Chatman vs Anthony Wint

Best bet: Terrance Chatman (+750) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #1

Terrance Chatman is available at +750 at FanDuel. The no-vig market is 12.5% compared with a 11.8% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Terrance Chatman at +750 (FanDuel) — 12.5% market win probability vs 11.8% break-even.
• Spread: Terrance Chatman +3.5 at +500 (Bovada) — 16.7% market win probability vs 16.7% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 1.5 at -240 (BetOnline) — 68% market win probability vs 70.6% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#2 Roland Dunlap vs Luke Trainer

Best bet: Roland Dunlap (+383) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #2

Roland Dunlap is available at +383 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 21.7% compared with a 20.7% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Roland Dunlap at +383 (BetOnline) — 21.7% market win probability vs 20.7% break-even.
• Over / Under: Over 1.5 at +135 (BetOnline) — 41.2% market win probability vs 42.6% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#3 Lerryan Douglas vs Jamall Emmers

Best bet: Jamall Emmers (+340) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #3

Jamall Emmers is available at +340 at Caesars. The no-vig market is 23.5% compared with a 22.7% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Jamall Emmers at +340 (Caesars) — 23.5% market win probability vs 22.7% break-even.
• Spread: Lerryan Douglas -5.5 at -275 (Bovada) — 68.8% market win probability vs 73.3% break-even.
• Over / Under: Over 1.5 at +145 (BetOnline) — 39.9% market win probability vs 40.8% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#4 Ketlen Vieira vs Cris Cyborg

Best bet: Ketlen Vieira (+383) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #4

Ketlen Vieira is available at +383 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 21.1% compared with a 20.7% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Ketlen Vieira at +383 (BetOnline) — 21.1% market win probability vs 20.7% break-even.
• Over / Under: Over 2.5 at -185 (BetOnline) — 62.9% market win probability vs 64.9% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#5 Elise Reed vs Shanelle Dyer

Best bet: Elise Reed (+610) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #5

Elise Reed is available at +610 at FanDuel. The no-vig market is 14.4% compared with a 14.1% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Elise Reed at +610 (FanDuel) — 14.4% market win probability vs 14.1% break-even.
• Spread: Elise Reed +7.5 at +165 (DraftKings) — 36.1% market win probability vs 37.7% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 2.5 at -135 (Betus) — 55.5% market win probability vs 57.4% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#6 Roman Dolidze vs Reinier de Ridder

Best bet: Roman Dolidze (+340) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #6

Roman Dolidze is available at +340 at Caesars. The no-vig market is 23.2% compared with a 22.7% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Roman Dolidze at +340 (Caesars) — 23.2% market win probability vs 22.7% break-even.
• Spread: Reinier de Ridder -5.5 at -125 (Bovada) — 52% market win probability vs 55.6% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 2.5 at +125 (BetOnline) — 44.3% market win probability vs 44.4% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#7 Jeisla Chaves vs Carli Judice

Best bet: Jeisla Chaves (+460) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #7

Jeisla Chaves is available at +460 at Caesars. The no-vig market is 18.2% compared with a 17.9% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Jeisla Chaves at +460 (Caesars) — 18.2% market win probability vs 17.9% break-even.
• Spread: Jeisla Chaves +7.5 at +105 (Bovada) — 46.9% market win probability vs 48.8% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 2.5 at +120 (BetOnline) — 44.4% market win probability vs 45.5% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#8 James Vake vs Eoin Sheridan

Best bet: James Vake (+560) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #8

James Vake is available at +560 at FanDuel. The no-vig market is 15.3% compared with a 15.2% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: James Vake at +560 (FanDuel) — 15.3% market win probability vs 15.2% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 1.5 at -135 (BetOnline) — 55.3% market win probability vs 57.4% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#9 Ryan Kuse vs Márcio Barbosa

Best bet: Ryan Kuse (+610) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #9

Ryan Kuse is available at +610 at FanDuel. The no-vig market is 14.2% compared with a 14.1% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Ryan Kuse at +610 (FanDuel) — 14.2% market win probability vs 14.1% break-even.
• Spread: Ryan Kuse +5.5 at +475 (Bovada) — 17.5% market win probability vs 17.4% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 1.5 at -255 (Betus) — 69.5% market win probability vs 71.8% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#10 Gregory Rodrigues vs Anthony Hernandez

Best bet: Gregory Rodrigues (+185) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #10

Gregory Rodrigues is available at +185 at DraftKings. The no-vig market is 35.3% compared with a 35.1% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Gregory Rodrigues at +185 (DraftKings) — 35.3% market win probability vs 35.1% break-even.
• Spread: Gregory Rodrigues +13.5 at +105 (DraftKings) — 48.3% market win probability vs 48.8% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 3.5 at -195 (BetOnline) — 64.1% market win probability vs 66.1% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#11 Mason Jones vs Marquel Mederos

Best bet: Marquel Mederos (+290) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #11

Marquel Mederos is available at +290 at Caesars. The no-vig market is 25.6% compared with a 25.6% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Marquel Mederos at +290 (Caesars) — 25.6% market win probability vs 25.6% break-even.
• Spread: Mason Jones -3.5 at -125 (Bovada) — 52.7% market win probability vs 55.6% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 2.5 at +174 (BetOnline) — 36.3% market win probability vs 36.5% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#12 Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev

Best bet: Kennedy Nzechukwu (+120) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #12

Kennedy Nzechukwu is available at +120 at FanDuel. The no-vig market is 45.4% compared with a 45.5% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Kennedy Nzechukwu at +120 (FanDuel) — 45.4% market win probability vs 45.5% break-even.
• Spread: Kennedy Nzechukwu +3.5 at -125 (Bovada) — 52.7% market win probability vs 55.6% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 1.5 at +110 (DraftKings) — 45.9% market win probability vs 47.6% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#13 Wes Schultz vs Jackson McVey

Best bet: Over 1.5 (+165) · Over / Under · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #13

Over 1.5 is available at +165 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 37.6% compared with a 37.7% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Wes Schultz at +155 (Caesars) — 38.5% market win probability vs 39.2% break-even.
• Spread: Wes Schultz +3.5 at +105 (Bovada) — 46.2% market win probability vs 48.8% break-even.
• Over / Under: Over 1.5 at +165 (BetOnline) — 37.6% market win probability vs 37.7% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#14 Vitor Petrino vs Sergey Spivak

Best bet: Under 1.5 (+183) · Over / Under · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #14

Under 1.5 is available at +183 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 35.1% compared with a 35.3% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Sergey Spivak at +135 (Caesars) — 42.2% market win probability vs 42.6% break-even.
• Spread: Vitor Petrino -3.5 at +105 (Bovada) — 46.2% market win probability vs 48.8% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 1.5 at +183 (BetOnline) — 35.1% market win probability vs 35.3% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#15 Nkosi Ndebele vs Marcirley Alves da Silva

Best bet: Nkosi Ndebele (+174) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #15

Nkosi Ndebele is available at +174 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 36.2% compared with a 36.5% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Nkosi Ndebele at +174 (BetOnline) — 36.2% market win probability vs 36.5% break-even.
• Over / Under: Over 2.5 at -195 (BetOnline) — 64.1% market win probability vs 66.1% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#16 Makkasharip Zaynukov vs Natan Schulte

Best bet: Natan Schulte (+157) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #16

Natan Schulte is available at +157 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 38.2% compared with a 38.9% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Natan Schulte at +157 (BetOnline) — 38.2% market win probability vs 38.9% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 2.5 at +200 (BetOnline) — 32.1% market win probability vs 33.3% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#17 Sabrinna de Sousa vs Taila Santos

Best bet: Taila Santos (-160) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #17

Taila Santos is available at -160 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 60.4% compared with a 61.5% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Taila Santos at -160 (BetOnline) — 60.4% market win probability vs 61.5% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 2.5 at +200 (BetOnline) — 32.1% market win probability vs 33.3% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#18 Daniel Marcos vs Magomed Magomedov

Best bet: Daniel Marcos (-150) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #18

Daniel Marcos is available at -150 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 58.2% compared with a 60% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Daniel Marcos at -150 (BetOnline) — 58.2% market win probability vs 60% break-even.
• Over / Under: Over 2.5 at -210 (BetOnline) — 65.5% market win probability vs 67.7% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#19 Robert Watley vs Gino van Steenis

Best bet: Robert Watley (+157) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #19

Robert Watley is available at +157 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 37.8% compared with a 38.9% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Robert Watley at +157 (BetOnline) — 37.8% market win probability vs 38.9% break-even.
• Over / Under: Over 1.5 at -130 (BetOnline) — 54.3% market win probability vs 56.5% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#20 Joaquin Buckley vs Tyron Woodley

Best bet: Tyron Woodley (-170) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #20

Tyron Woodley is available at -170 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 61.1% compared with a 63% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Tyron Woodley at -170 (BetOnline) — 61.1% market win probability vs 63% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#21 Morquez Forest vs Dakota Bush

Best bet: Dakota Bush (-200) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #21

Dakota Bush is available at -200 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 64.6% compared with a 66.7% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Dakota Bush at -200 (BetOnline) — 64.6% market win probability vs 66.7% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 1.5 at +153 (BetOnline) — 38.3% market win probability vs 39.5% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#22 Javid Basharat vs Movsar Ibragimov

Best bet: Movsar Ibragimov (+205) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #22

Movsar Ibragimov is available at +205 at FanDuel. The no-vig market is 31.8% compared with a 32.8% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Movsar Ibragimov at +205 (FanDuel) — 31.8% market win probability vs 32.8% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 2.5 at +192 (BetOnline) — 32.9% market win probability vs 34.2% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#23 Omran Chaaban vs Florim Zendeli

Best bet: Omran Chaaban (-140) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #23

Omran Chaaban is available at -140 at FanDuel. The no-vig market is 56% compared with a 58.3% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Omran Chaaban at -140 (FanDuel) — 56% market win probability vs 58.3% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#24 Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast

Best bet: Over 2.5 (-200) · Total · BEST BET

Why this bet ranks #24

The current probability and price clear today’s betting threshold. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Chris Padilla at -108 (FanDuel) — 51% market win probability vs 51.9% break-even.
• Spread: Chris Padilla +3.5 at -225 (DraftKings) — 64.7% market win probability vs 69.2% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 2.5 at +180 (BetOnline) — 34.8% market win probability vs 35.7% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#25 Henry Cejudo vs Merab Dvalishvili

Best bet: Henry Cejudo (+101) · Moneyline · MARKET LEAN

Why this bet ranks #25

Henry Cejudo is available at +101 at BetOnline. The no-vig market is 47.6% compared with a 49.8% break-even rate at that price. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Henry Cejudo at +101 (BetOnline) — 47.6% market win probability vs 49.8% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#26 Stan Dorsainvil vs Gauge Young

Best bet: Gauge Young (-159) · Moneyline · BEST BET

Why this bet ranks #26

The current probability and price clear today’s betting threshold. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Stan Dorsainvil at +149 (BetOnline) — 39.8% market win probability vs 40.2% break-even.
• Spread: Stan Dorsainvil +5.5 at -200 (Bovada) — 62.5% market win probability vs 66.7% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 2.5 at +161 (BetOnline) — 37.5% market win probability vs 38.3% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

#27 Tracy Reeder vs Gadzhi Rabadanov

Best bet: Gadzhi Rabadanov (-2200) · Moneyline · BEST BET

Why this bet ranks #27

The current probability and price clear today’s betting threshold. It ranks here after comparing the available price with the consensus market probability. The number is more important than the team name: if the price moves materially past the listed target, the bet should move down the card.

Moneyline, spread and total

• Moneyline: Tracy Reeder at +1550 (BetOnline) — 6.9% market win probability vs 6.1% break-even.
• Over / Under: Under 1.5 at -170 (BetOnline) — 61.1% market win probability vs 63% break-even.

What could change the bet

Confirm the final weigh-in result, any late replacements, and judging/style matchup notes before the walkout. A late scratch or weight miss can void or reshape the market. Recheck the moneyline if the price moves after the ceremonial weigh-in.

Shop this matchup across multiple sportsbooks. For the same selection, take the highest plus price or the lowest amount of juice. On spreads, take the extra half-point when it is available; on totals, compare both the number and price before deciding.

Final UFC betting card

The list above is already ordered from best to worst. Start at the top, demand the listed price, and skip any play after a bad line move. Smaller edges belong lower on the card and should not be treated like the top bet.

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Bet only what you can afford to lose. Odds and lineups can change.