MLB Betting Picks and Predictions – Monday, April 21, 2025

A promotional graphic highlighting MLB picks for April 21, 2025. Monday’s MLB schedule features six games with betting lines on the board. This preview offers predictions for each matchup on April 21, 2025, including moneyline winners, over/under picks, and one player prop bet for each game. Games are listed in chronological order by start time, beginning with the Boston Red Sox’s traditional Patriots’ Day morning game. Bettors can read on for analysis and picks for each contest.

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Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox – 11:10 AM ET

Moneyline: Red Sox (-275). Boston comes into this Patriots’ Day matchup as a heavy favorite, and for good reason. Ace Walker Buehler takes the mound for the Red Sox, giving them a big advantage in pitching and experience. The visiting White Sox are sending rookie Jonathan Cannon to make an early-career start at Fenway Park, an intimidating assignment. Boston’s potent lineup should capitalize on the inexperienced pitcher, and Buehler’s track record of shutting down opponents makes a White Sox upset unlikely. Expect the Red Sox to take care of business at home in the morning game.
Over/Under: Over 8.5 runs. The total is set at 8.5, and even with Buehler likely to stifle Chicago’s offense, the over is within reach thanks to Boston’s bats. The Red Sox could put up a bulk of the runs themselves against Cannon and the White Sox bullpen. Fenway Park’s hitter-friendly conditions, combined with an early start where pitchers can sometimes be a bit off routine, might lead to a few extra scoring opportunities. Even if the White Sox only scratch out a couple of runs, Boston’s lineup is capable of scoring enough to push the game total above 8.5. A final score in the range of 7-3 or 8-2 in favor of Boston would cash the over.
Player Prop: Walker Buehler over 7.5 strikeouts. Buehler is a strikeout artist at his best, and he should rack up Ks against a White Sox lineup that has had its share of swing-and-miss tendencies. In this matchup, Buehler could easily go 6+ innings, and facing a lineup that may be playing from behind, he’ll be free to attack hitters aggressively. Look for him to top eight or more strikeouts as he mows through Chicago’s order. Backing Buehler to go over 7.5 strikeouts is a solid prop, as the combination of his elite stuff and the White Sox’s lack of familiarity with him tilts in his favor.

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New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians – 6:10 PM ET

Moneyline: Yankees (-120). This matchup is fairly tight, but the Yankees are slight favorites and worth backing to win. New York will start Clarke Schmidt, a right-hander who can be inconsistent but has enough experience to keep the game close. The Guardians counter with young Gavin Williams, one of their top pitching prospects who has been impressive early in his career. While Williams might have the edge on the mound in pure talent, the Yankees’ lineup provides a significant advantage. Sluggers like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton give New York a firepower that Cleveland’s lighter-hitting offense can’t match. The Guardians tend to play low-scoring, small-ball games, but if the Yankees can plate a few runs off Williams or the bullpen, Cleveland may struggle to keep up. In a close contest, the Bronx Bombers’ ability to generate offense should be the difference. Pick New York to win a tight one on the road, as their superior lineup can overcome any early pitching duel.
Over/Under: Over 8.5 runs. Despite Cleveland’s reputation for pitching and the promising talent of Gavin Williams, this total can creep over. Schmidt has been hittable at times, so the Guardians should be able to push across some runs, even though they aren’t a powerhouse offense. On the other side, the Yankees facing a young pitcher means there’s always the chance for a big inning – one mistake to the Yankees’ big bats can lead to multiple runs quickly. The Yankees also have a knack for putting up runs late, so even if Williams contains them early, the back end of Cleveland’s bullpen could yield a few. Both teams might end up scoring in the 4-5 run range, which would send the game over the 8.5 total. A 5-4 or 6-4 type of final score is very plausible given the combination of New York’s power and Schmidt’s uncertainty. Therefore, lean over in this matchup.
Player Prop: Aaron Judge to hit a home run. Whenever the Yankees play, Aaron Judge is a threat to go deep, and this game is no exception. Judge led the league in homers recently and possesses light-tower power that can clear any ballpark – including Cleveland’s Progressive Field. Gavin Williams has great stuff but is still learning; if he makes a rookie mistake and leaves a pitch over the plate, Judge can make him pay with a long ball. Even if Williams pitches carefully to Judge, the Yankees slugger will get at-bats later against the bullpen, where a mislocated pitch could also end up in the seats. Betting on a Judge home run is always a bit of a bold call, but the matchup and his form make it a worthwhile prop pick. All it takes is one swing from the Yankees’ captain to cash this prop, and he’s more than capable of delivering.

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Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins – 6:40 PM ET

Moneyline: Reds (-135). Cincinnati enters this game as the favorite, and the matchup leans in their direction. The Reds are sending Nick Lodolo to the mound, a talented young left-hander known for his swing-and-miss stuff. Lodolo has shown flashes of being an ace when healthy, and against a Marlins lineup that traditionally struggles to score runs, he projects to have the upper hand. Miami will start Max Meyer, another promising young pitcher, but Meyer is still early in his MLB journey (he’s coming off an injury and has limited big-league experience). The Reds’ offense has a youthful spark – players like Elly De La Cruz, Jonathan India, and others can manufacture runs through power and speed. Meanwhile, the Marlins have often relied on scratching out a couple of runs and leaning on pitching, which might not be enough here. If Lodolo brings his A-game, the Marlins could be playing from behind all night. Take the Reds to win, as their superior offense and the advantage in starting pitching should lead them to a road victory in Miami.
Over/Under: Under 7.5 runs. This is the lowest total on the board for Monday, and it’s low for a reason. Both starting pitchers are high-upside arms, and Miami’s loanDepot Park is a pitcher-friendly venue that suppresses offense. The Marlins often find themselves in low-scoring games because their pitching outshines their hitting. Lodolo has the ability to shut down Miami’s lineup for six or seven innings, and if he does, the Marlins might only push across a run or two at best. On the other side, the Reds aren’t likely to explode offensively either – Max Meyer, though inexperienced, has good stuff and the Marlins’ bullpen is a strength. We might see a 3-2 or 4-2 type of game, which would comfortably stay under the 7.5 total. Unless the Reds’ bats really tee off on the youngster early (or the game goes to extra innings with a flurry of scoring), the under is the play in what should be a pitchers’ duel in Miami.
Player Prop: Nick Lodolo over 7.5 strikeouts. Lodolo is a strikeout pitcher by trade – in past seasons he’s averaged well over a strikeout per inning. Against a Marlins lineup that isn’t especially fearsome, he could pile up Ks. Miami’s hitters include some aggressive swingers and younger players who might have trouble picking up Lodolo’s sweeping breaking ball and mid-90s fastball. It’s not uncommon to see the Marlins strike out in bunches, and Lodolo once had double-digit strikeout performances when he’s in a groove. If he works deep into the game, say six innings or more, 8+ strikeouts is very attainable. Back Lodolo to overpower the Marlins enough times to hit the over on this strikeout prop, as Cincinnati leans on him to control the game.

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Moneyline: Phillies (+100). In a slight upset pick, consider the Phillies to win this NL East showdown despite being slight underdogs (the Mets are -120 favorites). Philadelphia sends Aaron Nola to the hill, a proven veteran ace who can dominate when he’s on. Nola’s presence gives the Phillies a trustworthy arm to counter the Mets’ lineup. New York is starting Tylor Megill, a pitcher who has had flashes of brilliance but generally profiles more as a back-end starter. The Phillies’ lineup is stacked with star power – Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and others – which means they can put runs on the board even against quality pitching. The Mets have dangerous hitters as well (Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, etc.), but Nola’s experience in big games often allows him to navigate tough lineups successfully. This could be a close game and likely a tense one given the divisional rivalry, but the edge goes to Philadelphia. If Nola can outduel Megill as expected, the Phillies have a great chance to pull off the win at Citi Field, making a Phillies moneyline bet an attractive choice at near even odds.
Over/Under: Under 8.5 runs. With a top-tier pitcher like Nola on the mound, the game could stay relatively low-scoring. The Mets might find it hard to string together big innings if Nola is commanding his arsenal; he’s adept at limiting walks and keeping the ball in the park. Meanwhile, the Phillies offense, while potent, may not need to blow up for a lot of runs to win this game – a few timely hits could do the job if Nola is shutting down New York. Tylor Megill is no ace, but if he can even be serviceable (say, 5 innings with 2-3 runs allowed), the total will be in good shape to stay under. Both teams also feature solid bullpens, which can help prevent late-inning scoring sprees. A final tally in the ballpark of 4-3 or 4-2 feels likely here. In a Nola vs. Mets scenario, leaning under 8.5 is the prudent call, anticipating a pitcher’s duel and a game where every run is hard-earned.
Player Prop: Bryce Harper over 1.5 total bases. Harper is the kind of elite hitter you want to bank on in a big game. In this matchup, he faces Tylor Megill, a right-handed pitcher. Harper, a left-handed slugger, has the platoon advantage and can do damage against righties. Taking over 1.5 total bases means we expect Harper to accumulate at least two bases via hits – this could be two singles, a double, triple, or a homer. Harper’s power and gap-to-gap hitting ability make multiple bases in a game a frequent occurrence. He could easily lace an extra-base hit into Citi Field’s gaps or down the lines. Additionally, Harper is known for rising to the occasion; in a rivalry game against the Mets, don’t be surprised if he delivers a big hit. Even if the overall game is low-scoring, Harper might be the one driving the Phillies’ offense with a couple of key knocks. This prop covers you whether he homers or just stacks up a couple of singles/doubles, and it’s a strong play given Harper’s talent and the matchup at hand.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves – 7:15 PM ET

Moneyline: Braves (-185). The Braves are significant favorites here, and it’s hard to argue against them at home. Atlanta’s lineup is among the most dangerous in baseball – featuring the likes of Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and more – and they can put pressure on any pitching staff. The Cardinals will start Erick Fedde, a journeyman right-hander who had modest success in past MLB stints and spent time overseas. Fedde is more of a control pitcher and doesn’t have overpowering stuff, which is a bad recipe against Atlanta’s power hitters. The Braves are countering with Spencer Schwellenbach, a promising young pitcher from their system. Schwellenbach is relatively untested in the majors (a rookie who showed impressive strikeout ability in the minors), so there’s some uncertainty there, but even if he struggles a bit, the Braves’ offense can likely pick him up. The Cardinals do have dangerous bats of their own – veterans like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado can still do damage – but Atlanta’s overall firepower and home-field advantage tilt this matchup strongly in their favor. The Braves have also been a strong home team historically, especially in night games at Truist Park. All signs point to Atlanta winning this game, potentially by a comfortable margin if their bats get hot early.
Over/Under: Over 8.5 runs. This game has the ingredients for a high-scoring affair. Atlanta’s offense alone is capable of covering a large chunk of this total; if Fedde isn’t sharp, the Braves could put up a big number by themselves. Fedde had a tendency to give up early runs in past outings, and against an aggressive Braves lineup, that trend could continue. On the flip side, while we expect Atlanta to win, their young pitcher Schwellenbach might not be flawless. The Cardinals have enough experienced hitters to take advantage of any rookie mistakes, and even a few runs from St. Louis will help push the total upward. Atlanta’s bullpen can sometimes be a bit vulnerable in middle relief, which could open the door for the Cardinals to tack on a couple runs in the later innings as well. A scenario like a 6-3 or 7-4 Braves win would cash the over 8.5 comfortably, and that’s well within reason given the mismatch of Atlanta’s hitters against a pitch-to-contact arm like Fedde. Bettors should look for over 8.5 runs in this one, expecting plenty of offense under the lights in Atlanta.
Player Prop: Ronald Acuña Jr. over 1.5 total bases. The Braves’ superstar outfielder has been an extra-base hit machine and an MVP-caliber player. Betting on Acuña to get 2+ total bases is essentially betting on him to either have a multi-hit game or one really big hit – both of which he does regularly. Facing Erick Fedde, Acuña will be aggressive at the plate. Fedde doesn’t have the velocity to blow the ball by a hitter like Acuña, and he relies on command. Acuña can turn even a well-located pitch into a hit with his quick bat and power to all fields. He might lead off the game with a double in the gap or later drive a ball to the wall. Even a couple of singles from Acuña would fulfill this prop, and given his form, a 2-for-5 or 3-for-5 night is very much on the table. Additionally, Acuña’s speed means he can stretch a single into a double if a defender is even slightly slow getting the ball in. All told, against a middling right-hander, Acuña over 1.5 total bases is a strong bet – he’s the kind of talent who can cover that in his first at-bat of the game.

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Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants – 9:45 PM ET

Moneyline: Giants (-155). The late game on Monday sees the Giants favored at home, and they have several factors working in their favor. San Francisco hands the ball to Robbie Ray, the veteran left-hander and former Cy Young winner. Ray is a few years removed from his Cy Young season, but when healthy he’s still a high-quality starter with the ability to miss bats. The Brewers will counter with Quinn Priester, a young right-hander still trying to establish himself in the majors. Priester has talent but had an uneven start to his big-league career; he’s likely still experiencing growing pains. The Giants tend to play well at Oracle Park, using the cavernous outfield and thick night air to their advantage (especially pitchers like Ray who can challenge hitters without as much fear of the long ball in San Francisco). Offensively, the Giants aren’t a juggernaut, but they have a mix of veterans and young players who execute well in situational hitting. The Brewers, on the other hand, have been known for streaky offense – they have some power (perhaps a bat like Willy Adames or a rising prospect in the lineup), but they can go quiet for stretches, particularly on the road in a pitcher’s park. With Ray’s experience and the Giants’ home-field edge, San Francisco should have enough to get the win. Milwaukee might keep it close if their pitching holds up, but ultimately back the Giants to win a relatively tight, low-scoring contest out west.
Over/Under: Under 8.5 runs. Oracle Park in San Francisco is famously pitcher-friendly, especially for night games when the cool air knocks down fly balls. This environment, combined with a solid pitcher like Robbie Ray on the mound, points to an under. Ray should be able to handle a Brewers lineup that is not especially fearsome top to bottom. Milwaukee’s offense has been middle-of-the-pack, and facing a lefty who can generate strikeouts will likely suppress their scoring. On the flip side, the Giants offense might also have a modest output – they’re not typically a team that bludgeons opponents with high scores, and the Brewers do have a decent bullpen that can contain damage if Priester only lasts a few innings. Priester himself is a bit of a wildcard; if he pitches well, that further helps the under, and if he struggles, Milwaukee will go to the bullpen early to limit runs. Either way, it’s hard to see this game becoming a slugfest. A score in the vicinity of 4-3 or 5-2 Giants feels about right, which would land under the 8.5 total. Bettors should look at the conditions and the pitching matchup and feel confident taking under in this one, expecting a relatively quiet night offensively.
Player Prop: Robbie Ray over 6.5 strikeouts. Ray’s strikeout prowess is well documented – he led the American League in Ks when he won the Cy Young in 2021, and even as he’s aged, strikeouts remain a big part of his game. The Brewers, as a team, have often been prone to striking out. They feature a number of power hitters and free swingers who can be neutralized by a good slider or high fastball, both of which are Ray’s specialties. In a typical start, Ray might go around 6 innings. In the spacious San Francisco ballpark, he can challenge hitters directly, which could actually boost his strikeout total (he won’t mind throwing strikes and letting the park hold any deep flies). If he goes 6 innings, averaging a little more than one strikeout per inning will get him over the 6.5 mark. Considering the matchup, it’s quite feasible – Milwaukee’s lineup has a few batters who could fan multiple times against a lefty of Ray’s caliber. Back Ray to collect at least 7 strikeouts in this game. It aligns with the expectation that he’ll be in control on the mound, using the strikeout to escape any jams and keep Milwaukee’s offense at bay.

Each of these six games offers an intriguing betting angle, and by analyzing the pitching matchups and team tendencies, we’ve arrived at a moneyline pick, an over/under lean, and a player prop for each. Good luck and enjoy the full day of MLB action this Monday!

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