Cubs vs Twins Prediction, Pick and Preview, August 31: MLB

Credit: photo by Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

 

Odds

Time	8:10 p.m. EST
Cubs money line	+133
Cubs run line	+1.5 (-145)
Twins money line	-145
Twins run line	-1.5 (+125)
Over / under	9.5 (-110)

 

Key stats

	Cubs	Twins
Record	57-75	58-73
Road / home record	24-43	32-34
Last 10 record	4-6	4-6
Streak	L1	W1
Over / under record	58-66-8	75-49-7
Runs / game	4.23	4.59
Runs allowed / game	5.06	5.34

 

Preview

The Cubs are in Target Field to begin a two-game series against the Twins.  They sit 4th in the NL Central with little chance of making the postseason and are coming off of a 2-1 series defeat to city rivals Chicago White Sox.  They've lost three of their last four averaging 7.75 runs per game and giving up 10.75 runs per game to their opponents despite having a shutout in that stretch.  The Twins sit at the bottom of the AL Central and have won three of their last four.  They're averaging 3.25 runs per game scored and 3 runs per game conceded.  

Pitching matchup

Cubs

Zach Davies (6-10, 5.60 ERA) Zach Davies will get his 28th start of the season.  Davies played five years for the Twins but has his career-best ERA of 2.73 in 2020 with the Padres.  He's 6-10 with a 5.60 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP in 2021, his first season with the Cubs.  In August, he played five games pitching 22.5 innings, surrendering 25 hits and 20 ERs with six walks and 24 strikeouts.  His ERA in that span in 7.94

Twins

John Grant

(4-8, 4.00 ERA) John Grant will take the mound for the Twins.  Grant had a busy August since joining the Twins on trade deadline day, playing nine games so far.  His season record is 4-8 and has a 4.00 ERA for 2021.  In his last seven games, he's pitched 13.1 innings giving up 11 hits and as many ERs. He also has 17 strikeouts compared to only six walks.  He played the Cubs four times this season with an average ERA of 3.48 against them.  In those four games, he pitched 4.4 innings giving up only four hits and six ERs. 

Prediction

Neither of these clubs has been consistent from the mound and the Cubs bats have been putting runs on the board.  The over / under isn't unattainable for this matchup.  

PICK: Over 9.5 (-110)

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