UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 - Main Event Pick: Dustin "The Diamond" Poirier vs. Max "Blessed" Holloway

The highly anticipated main event of UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 will feature a lightweight trilogy bout for the BMF title between two fan-favorite legends, Max "Blessed" Holloway and Dustin "The Diamond" Poirier. This epic clash is set for July 19, 2025, at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, LA.

Fighter Backgrounds

Max Holloway

Max "Blessed" Holloway (26-8-0) is a 33-year-old American fighting out of Gracie Technics. A former UFC Featherweight Champion and current BMF title holder, Holloway is renowned for his incredible striking volume, relentless pressure, and iron chin. He recently suffered a TKO loss to Ilia Topuria in October 2024 in a featherweight title bid, which was the first time he'd ever been finished in his career. Prior to that, he delivered a highlight-reel last-second knockout of Justin Gaethje at UFC 300 in April 2024 to win the BMF title, cementing his status as one of the sport's greatest strikers.

Dustin Poirier

Dustin "The Diamond" Poirier (30-9-0) is a 36-year-old American fighting out of American Top Team. A former interim UFC Lightweight Champion, Poirier is known for his powerful boxing, relentless pressure, and incredible heart, which has led to many "Fight of the Night" bonuses. This fight is rumored to be Poirier's last in the UFC. He is coming off a submission loss to Islam Makhachev for the lightweight title in June 2024. Before that, he scored a thrilling TKO win over Benoit Saint Denis in March 2024. Poirier holds a 2-0 record over Holloway, with a submission win in their first featherweight encounter in 2012 (Holloway's UFC debut) and a dominant unanimous decision win in their interim lightweight title fight in 2019.

Fighting Styles and Strengths

Max Holloway

Unmatched Volume and Output: Holloway is famous for his ability to throw and land an incredible number of strikes, overwhelming opponents with sheer volume.
Elite Boxing: Possesses some of the best boxing in MMA, utilizing combinations, feints, and head movement.
Cardio for Days: Known for his phenomenal gas tank, allowing him to maintain a high pace for five rounds.
Durability: Has an iron chin, though it was finally cracked by Topuria. Still, he has absorbed an astonishing amount of punishment throughout his career.

Dustin Poirier

Powerful Southpaw Boxing: Poirier's hands are among the most dangerous in the lightweight division, with devastating power in both hands.
Aggressive Pressure: "The Diamond" constantly pushes forward, forcing exchanges and rarely takes a step back.
Submission Grappling: A black belt in BJJ with solid submission skills, capable of finishing fights on the ground.
Resilience and Heart: Has consistently shown the ability to weather storms and come back stronger, making him a dangerous opponent even when hurt.

Recent Performances

Max Holloway

Holloway's win over Justin Gaethje at UFC 300 was a career-defining moment, showcasing his incredible striking and toughness at lightweight. However, his subsequent TKO loss to Ilia Topuria in a featherweight title fight was a significant setback, raising questions about his chin at the elite level, especially after years of absorbing punishment.

Dustin Poirier

Poirier's recent record is a bit more mixed, alternating wins and losses against the very top of the lightweight division. His submission loss to Islam Makhachev at UFC 302 was another championship defeat, but his TKO win over Benoit Saint Denis earlier in 2024 showed he still has fight-ending power and the ability to overcome adversity. Poirier has famously never lost back-to-back fights in his career.

Odds and Betting Information

Fighter	Odds
Max Holloway	-130
Dustin Poirier	+110

Max Holloway is the slight favorite at -130, while Dustin Poirier is the underdog at +110.

Keys to Victory

Max Holloway

Volume and Pace: Revert to his signature relentless striking volume and high pace to break Poirier down over five rounds.
Body Work: Target Poirier's body to deplete his gas tank, as Poirier has shown susceptibility to body shots in the past.
Stay on the Outside: Avoid getting drawn into a phone booth brawl where Poirier's power can be maximized.
Takedown Defense: Be wary of Poirier's submission attempts, especially if he gets hurt on the feet.

Dustin Poirier

Land the Power Shot: Poirier's boxing is his biggest weapon. He needs to connect clean with his heavy hands early and often to make Holloway respect his power.
Calf Kicks: Revisit the calf kicks that worked so effectively against Conor McGregor to slow Holloway's movement and limit his volume.
Grappling Threats: Threaten with takedowns and submissions to keep Holloway guessing and open up striking opportunities.
Manage Energy: Avoid emptying the tank too early, as Holloway's cardio is legendary.

Prediction

This is arguably the most anticipated trilogy fight in recent memory, and it's happening at lightweight, where both men are naturally bigger and stronger. Poirier leads the series 2-0, with a submission win early in their careers and a dominant decision victory in their lightweight interim title fight. While Holloway has evolved significantly since then, especially with his recent BMF title win, the context of his recent TKO loss to Topuria at featherweight is a concern when facing a power puncher like Poirier at lightweight.

Poirier's fighting style, particularly his powerful boxing and ability to fight in the pocket, has historically caused Holloway problems. Even in their second fight, Poirier absorbed Holloway's volume and landed the heavier, more impactful shots. While Holloway showed he can carry power to lightweight by knocking out Gaethje, Poirier's chin has generally held up better against pure power, and he has a track record of never losing back-to-back fights. This "retirement fight" narrative also adds an emotional element that could fuel Poirier to deliver a classic performance in front of his home crowd.

At 36, Poirier might be nearing the end of his career, but his last performance against Benoit Saint Denis showed he still has elite-level striking and the heart of a champion. Holloway's relentless volume is a threat, but Poirier's counter-striking and ability to take a punch and fire back could lead him to victory once again. Given the odds, with Poirier as the underdog, there's significant value in backing "The Diamond."

Prediction: Dustin Poirier via Unanimous Decision.

Best Bet: Dustin Poirier to win (+110). Poirier's history against Holloway, his power at lightweight, and his proven ability to dig deep in five-round wars make him an excellent value pick as the underdog, especially given the emotional stakes of what could be his final fight.

Betting on MMA carries inherent risks. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not guarantee outcomes. Please bet responsibly. Odds are subject to change.

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