© Per Haljestam-Imagn Images

 

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 - Fight Breakdown: Thiago Moises vs. Trey Ogden

On January 11, 2025, the UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 event will bring an exciting lightweight matchup between Brazil’s Thiago Moises and the USA’s Trey Ogden at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. Both fighters are experienced and determined to make a statement, promising an intense clash of skills.

 

Fighter Backgrounds

Thiago Moises

Thiago Moises (18-8-0), representing American Top Team, is a seasoned lightweight with a well-rounded skill set. Standing at 5'9" with a 70.5" reach, Moises has proven himself a capable grappler with eight submission victories. Known for his resilience and technical proficiency, he has faced elite competition throughout his career, including bouts against Islam Makhachev and Beneil Dariush. After a highlight-reel TKO victory against Mitch Ramirez earlier in 2024, Moises is eager to climb back into contention.

Trey Ogden

Trey Ogden (18-6-0), nicknamed "Shamurai", brings a submission-heavy game to the octagon. Standing at 5'11", Ogden fights out of Marathon MMA and has secured 11 submission wins in his career. Ogden’s recent unanimous decision victories over Kurt Holobaugh and Loik Radzhabov demonstrate his ability to outlast opponents with grit and tactical adjustments. His ground game remains his most potent weapon, but he also has the durability to push through adversity.

Fighting Styles and Strengths

Thiago Moises

• Elite Grappling: Moises has a dangerous submission arsenal and is comfortable fighting off his back or in dominant positions.
• Striking Evolution: While known for his grappling, Moises has made significant improvements in his striking game, as shown in his recent TKO victory.
• Octagon Experience: Moises has fought high-level competition, giving him an edge in big-fight scenarios.

Trey Ogden

• Submission Mastery: Ogden’s ability to secure submissions makes him a constant threat on the ground.
• Durability: Ogden’s toughness allows him to weather early storms and turn fights in his favor.
• Strategic Mindset: Ogden’s adaptability has led him to outpoint opponents in tactical battles.

Recent Performances

Thiago Moises

Moises is coming off a TKO win over Mitch Ramirez in March 2024, where he showcased his striking improvements. Despite a tough loss to Benoît Saint Denis in September 2023, Moises demonstrated his heart and durability. His 2022 submission wins over Christos Giagos and Melquizael Costa highlight his grappling dominance and ability to finish fights when opportunities arise.

Trey Ogden

Ogden enters this fight on a two-fight win streak, having defeated Kurt Holobaugh and Loik Radzhabov via unanimous decision. Both fights showcased his ability to control the pace and use his grappling to nullify his opponents’ strengths. However, Ogden has struggled against higher-level competition, as seen in his losses to Ignacio Bahamondes and Jordan Leavitt.

Odds and Betting Information

Fighter	Odds
Thiago Moises	-190
Trey Ogden	+160

The betting odds favor Thiago Moises at -190, reflecting his well-rounded skill set and experience at the highest level. Trey Ogden, at +160, presents value as a live underdog with a strong submission game and durability.

Keys to Victory

Thiago Moises

• Control the Grappling: Use his superior grappling skills to dictate the pace and position of the fight.
• Pressure Striking: Apply pressure with striking to keep Ogden on the defensive.
• Stay Composed: Avoid getting caught in Ogden’s submission traps during scrambles.

Trey Ogden

• Exploit Scrambles: Capitalize on opportunities to secure submissions during transitions.
• Maintain Distance: Use his height advantage to keep Moises from closing the gap.
• Push the Pace: Test Moises’ cardio by forcing a high-output fight.

Prediction