```html MLB Player Props Value Bets: Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets 7/27

MLB Player Props Value Bets: Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets 7/27

Photo Credit: © Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Game Summary

The Atlanta Braves will be looking to break their six-game losing streak when they face the New York Mets at Citi Field on Saturday, July 27, 2024, at 4:10 p.m. EDT. The Braves, currently third in the NL East with a 54-48 record, have struggled recently, going 3-7 in their last 10 games. Conversely, the Mets, second in the division with a 55-48 record, have been in better form, winning 7 of their last 10 games.

Historically, the Mets hold a slight edge this season, leading the series 5-3 over the Braves. Both teams have had their ups and downs, but New York has been particularly strong at home, boasting a 28-26 record. Atlanta, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, with a 24-27 record.

Key performers for the Mets include Francisco Lindor, who leads the team with 22 home runs and a .480 slugging percentage, and Jose Iglesias, who has been on fire over the past 10 games, going 17-for-37 with two home runs and five RBIs. For the Braves, Marcell Ozuna has been a standout, leading the team with a .308 batting average, 29 home runs, and 81 RBIs. Travis d'Arnaud has also contributed significantly, going 11-for-31 with two home runs and eight RBIs in his last 10 games.

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Player Prop Odds

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Orlando Arcia Prop Odds:

• Batter Doubles: Over 0.5 (+480)
• Batter Hits: Over 0.5 (-145)
• Batter RBIs: Over 0.5 (+220)
• Batter Runs Scored: Over 0.5 (+125)
• Batter Singles: Over 0.5 (+105)
• Batter Total Bases: Over 1.5 (+200)

Player Analysis: Orlando Arcia

Orlando Arcia has been a consistent performer for the Braves this season. He’s slashing .280/.330/.400 with 9 home runs, 45 RBIs, and 50 runs scored over 100 games. Arcia's ability to get on base and contribute to the run-scoring effort is crucial, especially against a Mets team that has strong pitching but can be vulnerable to players who can consistently put the ball in play.

In his last 10 games, Arcia has shown a steady hand at the plate, hitting .275 with a .340 OBP. His ability to hit for contact and drive in runs makes him a valuable player prop target, particularly in categories like total bases and runs scored.

Opposing Analysis: Mets Pitching

The Mets will be sending Tylor Megill to the mound. Megill has had a rocky season, with a 2-4 record, a 5.08 ERA, and a 1.44 WHIP over 39 innings. While he has a decent strikeout rate (49 Ks), he has also been prone to giving up hits and walks, which can be exploited by a disciplined hitter like Arcia.

Megill has particularly struggled against right-handed batters, allowing a .280 average and a .350 OBP. Given Arcia’s right-handed batting profile and his recent form, there’s a strong case to be made for him hitting over 1.5 total bases or even scoring a run.

Pitching Probables

Player	W-L	ERA	WHIP	IP	H	K	BB	HR
Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL)	3-5	4.62	1.16	50.2	49	49	10	7
Tylor Megill (NYM)	2-4	5.08	1.44	39.0	37	49	19	3

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Team Previews

Atlanta Braves

The Braves have had a mixed season so far, with a 54-48 record. Offensively, they rank 5th in runs scored (504) and 9th in hits (884). They have a team batting average of .249, which ranks 11th in the league. Their pitching staff has struggled, with a team ERA of 4.15, ranking 21st. However, their bullpen has been relatively solid, with 28 saves, ranking 9th.

New York Mets

The Mets have been slightly better with a 55-48 record. They rank 21st in runs scored (428) and 18th in hits (825). Their team batting average is .240, ranking 18th. The Mets' pitching has been a strength, with a team ERA of 3.52, ranking 3rd in the league. They also rank 14th in saves with 26.

Team Injuries

Player	Position	Updated	Injury	Injury Status
Michael Harris II	OF	7/27	Hamstring	60-Day IL
Ozzie Albies	2B	7/27	Wrist	10-Day IL
Max Fried	SP	7/27	Forearm	15-Day IL

Player	Position	Updated	Injury	Injury Status
Harrison Bader	CF	7/26	Ankle	Probable
Kodai Senga	SP	7/26	Calf	Expected to be out until at least Aug 2

Recent Games

Atlanta Braves

Opponent	Score	W/L
@ New York	2-3	L
@ New York	4-8	L
vs Cincinnati	4-9	L
vs Cincinnati	Postponed	P
vs Cincinnati	1-4	L

New York Mets

Opponent	Score	W/L
vs Atlanta	8-4	W
vs Atlanta	3-2	W
@ New York	12-3	W
@ New York	3-2	W
@ Miami	6-4	W

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Prediction

Given Tylor Megill’s struggles against right-handed batters and Arcia’s recent form, we like the value on Orlando Arcia to score over 1.5 total bases at +200 odds. His ability to get on base and the likelihood of Megill giving up hits makes this a strong bet.

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