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NFL Week 1: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons Preview and Prediction

Introduction

The 2024 NFL season kicks off with a defensive battle between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on September 8th. The Falcons are slight favorites at home with a 3.5-point spread, but the total points line is set at 41.5. 

 

Game Odds

Odds by ESPN BET as of 10:00 AM

Team	Spread	Total	Moneyline
Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0)	+3.5 (-120)	o41.5 (-115)	+155
Atlanta Falcons (0-0)	-3.5 (EVEN)	u41.5 (-105)	-185

 

Team Overview

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers enter the 2024 season with a new quarterback, Russell Wilson, who brings veteran experience but also some uncertainty after a shaky preseason. Wilson’s integration into the Steelers’ system has been a work in progress, and with his questionable status due to injuries, Pittsburgh’s offense could face challenges in finding rhythm early in the season. The Steelers will likely rely heavily on their running game, led by Najee Harris, to control the clock and manage the game.

Defensively, the Steelers remain a formidable unit, particularly in their front seven. T.J. Watt leads a pass rush that can disrupt even the most seasoned quarterbacks, while Minkah Fitzpatrick anchors a secondary that is opportunistic and capable of creating turnovers. Pittsburgh’s defense will be the key to keeping this game close, as they will look to contain Atlanta’s offense and limit big plays. Given the uncertainty surrounding the Steelers’ offense, the defense will need to carry the load, making a low-scoring game more likely.

Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons also enter the season with a new quarterback in Kirk Cousins, who brings stability and experience to an offense that has struggled with consistency in recent years. However, the Falcons’ offense, while improved, may take some time to gel, particularly with Cousins adjusting to a new system. The Falcons will likely focus on establishing the run with Bijan Robinson, their dynamic young running back, to set up play-action opportunities and control the pace of the game.

Defensively, the Falcons have made significant improvements, particularly in their pass rush. Grady Jarrett remains a force in the middle, and the addition of veterans like Calais Campbell adds depth and experience to the defensive line. The Falcons’ secondary, led by A.J. Terrell, is solid and should match up well against Pittsburgh’s receiving corps, especially if Russell Wilson is limited. Atlanta’s defense will aim to stifle Pittsburgh’s offense, forcing the Steelers into long drives and minimizing scoring opportunities. This defensive strength, combined with an offense that may be conservative, points to a game where points are at a premium.

 

Recent Performance

The Steelers had a difficult preseason, finishing 0-3 with losses to the Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, and Houston Texans. Their most recent game, a 24-17 loss to the Lions, highlighted several offensive concerns, particularly with Russell Wilson’s inconsistent play. The Steelers’ defense, while still strong, showed some vulnerabilities, particularly in their secondary. However, the defense’s ability to make key stops and keep games close will be crucial as the regular season begins.

The Falcons also had a disappointing preseason, going 0-3, with their last game being a 31-0 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. However, Atlanta rested many of their starters, including Kirk Cousins, which may explain their lack of offensive production. The defense, however, showed some promise, particularly in stopping the run, which will be key in this matchup against Najee Harris and the Steelers. With their starters returning, the Falcons are expected to perform better, but their conservative approach on offense could keep the scoring low.

 

Head-to-Head Comparison

This matchup between the Steelers and Falcons features two teams with defenses that could dictate the flow of the game. The Steelers, led by T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick, have the ability to disrupt Kirk Cousins and force the Falcons into difficult third-down situations. Pittsburgh’s offense, which has struggled to find consistency, will likely focus on a ball-control approach, using Najee Harris to grind out yards and keep the clock moving.

The Falcons, while featuring a more experienced quarterback in Kirk Cousins, may also lean heavily on their running game with Bijan Robinson. With Kyle Pitts questionable and the offense still finding its footing, Atlanta is likely to employ a conservative game plan, focusing on avoiding mistakes and capitalizing on Pittsburgh’s errors. The combination of two strong defenses and offenses that may be cautious points towards a game where the under is a strong play.

 

Key Injuries and Their Impact

Injuries could significantly influence the tempo and scoring of this game. For the Steelers, the most notable injury is to Russell Wilson, who is listed as questionable. If Wilson is limited or unable to play, the Steelers’ offense could become even more reliant on the running game, further slowing the pace of the game. Other key players, such as Troy Fautanu and Jaylen Warren, are also listed as questionable, which could impact both the offensive line and the running game.

For the Falcons, tight end Kyle Pitts is the most significant injury concern. If Pitts is unavailable, it could limit Atlanta’s options in the passing game, particularly in the red zone. This could lead the Falcons to focus more on their running game with Bijan Robinson and play a more conservative style of football. The Falcons’ defense, which is relatively healthy, will be expected to keep Pittsburgh’s offense in check, further supporting the case for the under.

 

Coaching Matchup

The coaching matchup features Atlanta’s Arthur Smith against Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin. Smith, known for his offensive schemes, will likely focus on establishing the run and using play-action to create opportunities for Kirk Cousins. However, given the Falcons’ new offensive system and potential injury concerns, Smith may opt for a more conservative game plan to avoid turnovers and control the clock.

Mike Tomlin, one of the most respected coaches in the NFL, is known for his ability to get the most out of his players, particularly on defense. Tomlin will likely lean heavily on his defense to keep the game close and give his offense a chance to find its footing. With Russell Wilson’s status uncertain, Tomlin’s game plan may focus on ball control and field position, aiming to win a low-scoring, grind-it-out game. The coaching battle will likely revolve around which team can better manage the game and avoid costly mistakes, which aligns with a lower-scoring outcome.

 

Advanced Metrics and Key Stats

Advanced metrics support the likelihood of a low-scoring game, particularly when examining the strengths of both defenses. Last season, the Steelers ranked among the top teams in the league in defensive efficiency, particularly in pressuring the quarterback and creating turnovers. With T.J. Watt healthy and ready to start the season, Pittsburgh’s defense could make it difficult for the Falcons to sustain drives and put up points.

The Falcons, while not as strong defensively as the Steelers, have made significant improvements, particularly in their pass rush and run defense. The addition of veterans like Calais Campbell and the continued development of young stars like A.J. Terrell have given Atlanta a defense that can hold its own against most offenses. Given the offensive uncertainties for both teams, the key statistical areas to watch will be third-down conversions and red-zone efficiency. If both defenses can limit these opportunities, the total points could easily stay under 41.5.

 

Weather and Venue Impact

This game will be played indoors at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, so weather will not be a factor. The controlled environment typically benefits offenses, but in this case, the strengths of both defenses and the potential conservative play-calling could keep scoring low. The fast track at the stadium could lead to some explosive plays, but both teams are likely to focus on ball control and field position, which aligns with a lower-scoring game.

The Falcons will have the advantage of playing in front of their home crowd, known for creating a loud and energetic atmosphere. However, the Steelers are a veteran team accustomed to playing in tough environments. If the game remains close, the crowd could become less of a factor, particularly if both teams are struggling to score. The conditions set the stage for a game where defenses dominate and points are hard to come by.

 

Betting Trends and Statistics

Betting trends for this matchup favor the under, particularly given the defensive strengths of both teams and the uncertainties surrounding their offenses. The Steelers have seen the under hit in four of their last six road games, reflecting their ability to keep games low-scoring and close. With a new quarterback in Russell Wilson and potential offensive limitations, Pittsburgh’s trend towards the under is likely to continue.

The Falcons have also trended towards the under in recent games, particularly when facing strong defensive teams. With the total set at 41.5 points, this line seems reachable given the potential for both offenses to struggle against stout defenses. If the game follows the expected script of a defensive battle, the under is the most appealing play.

 

Player Spotlight: T.J. Watt

T.J. Watt, the Steelers’ star pass rusher, is expected to be a key player in this matchup. Watt’s ability to pressure the quarterback and disrupt the offense will be crucial in keeping the Falcons’ scoring in check. Last season, Watt was among the league leaders in sacks and tackles for loss, and his presence alone can alter the course of a game. If Watt can dominate the line of scrimmage and force Kirk Cousins into quick decisions, it could lead to mistakes and limit Atlanta’s offensive output.

Watt’s impact goes beyond just his own stats; his presence opens up opportunities for other defenders to make plays, whether through blitzes or by forcing the quarterback into bad throws. If Watt and the Steelers’ defense can control the game, it will likely result in a low-scoring affair, further supporting the pick for the under.

 

Prediction