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Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen - Game Analysis and Prediction

The storied Army-Navy rivalry renews on December 14, 2024, at Northwest Stadium in Landover, Maryland. This year’s clash is particularly significant, as No. 19 Army (11-1) and Navy (8-3) enter with a combined 19 wins—the most ever for this annual matchup. Both teams are known for their ground-and-pound rushing offenses, but expect a competitive game as Navy seeks to pull off an upset against the heavily favored Black Knights.

 

Odds Table

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total (Over/Under)
Navy Midshipmen	+6.5 (-105)	+220	o39.5 (-105)
Army Black Knights	-6.5 (-115)	-270	u39.5 (-115)

The over/under is set at 39.5 points, a relatively low total that reflects the defensive focus and clock-control style of both teams. However, this line may offer value considering recent scoring trends.

Team Analysis

Navy Midshipmen

Navy has an 8-3 record and sits third in the American Athletic Conference. The Midshipmen rely heavily on their dual-threat quarterback, Ben Horvath, who has contributed both through the air (1,154 yards, 11 TDs) and on the ground (895 rushing yards, 13 TDs). Navy’s offense has averaged 26.6 points per game, though they’ve struggled at times against top-tier opponents.

• Key Players: QB Ben Horvath, WR Emory Heidenreich (597 receiving yards, 5 TDs), RB Luke Bennett (6 rushing TDs).
• Defensive Strengths: Navy allows 20.8 points per game, bolstered by a disciplined unit that excels in stopping the run.

Army Black Knights

Army boasts an 11-1 record and is undefeated in conference play. The Black Knights are led by quarterback Bryce Daily, who has amassed 1,480 rushing yards and an incredible 29 touchdowns this season. Army’s offense averages 35.8 points per game, the highest in the AAC, and their defense allows just 16.4 points per game.

• Key Players: QB Bryce Daily, WR Caleb Reynolds (426 receiving yards, 3 TDs), LB Marcus Wilkins (team leader in tackles and sacks).
• Defensive Strengths: Army excels in creating turnovers and ranks in the top 10 nationally in red-zone defense.

Recent Performance

Navy Midshipmen

Navy has been inconsistent in recent weeks, going 3-2 in its last five games:

• 11/29: Defeated ECU 34-20
• 11/16: Lost to Tulane 35-0
• 11/9: Defeated USF 28-7
• 11/2: Lost to Rice 24-10
• 10/26: Defeated Notre Dame 51-14

Army Black Knights

Army has been dominant, winning four of its last five games and showcasing its balanced attack:

• 12/6: Defeated Tulane 35-14
• 11/30: Defeated UTSA 29-24
• 11/23: Lost to Notre Dame 49-14
• 11/9: Defeated North Texas 14-3
• 11/2: Defeated Air Force 20-3

Betting Stats and Trends

Key trends for Navy:

• The total has gone over in three of Navy's last five games.
• Navy is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as an underdog.
• Navy is 2-3 ATS in its last five head-to-head matchups against Army.

Key trends for Army:

• The total has gone over in four of Army's last six games.
• Army is 3-2 ATS in its last five games as a favorite.
• Army has won six of its last seven games against Navy outright.

Prediction