Alexander Hernandez vs Mike Breeden Odds, Preview and Prediction, October 2 (10/2): UFC

Credit: photo by Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

 

Odds

Time (Main Card)	7:00 p.m. EST
Alexander Hernandez money line	-500
Mike Breeden money line	+380

 

Key stats

	Alexander Hernandez	Mike Breeden
Height	5'9	5'10
Weight	155	155
Reach	72'	70'
Record	12-4	10-3
Streak	L1	W2
Last 5	2-3	4-1

 

Preview

 

The opening fight of the main card comes in the Lightweight division, as Alexander ‘The Great’ Hernandez takes on Mike ‘Money’ Breeden. Hernandez enters this fight off a close defeat to Thiago Moises. The once upstart prospect certainly hasn’t lived up to his dramatic entry into the UFC, trading wins and losses for the last six fights. Meanwhile, Breeden steps in on short notice to make his UFC debut. Breeden has won two consecutive fights, and five of his last six. With eight of his ten wins coming via knockout, Breeden is someone to watch out for on the feet.

Prediction

There is a lot of pressure on Alexander Hernandez in this fight. The way he stormed into the UFC, knocking out the now number three ranked Lightweight Beniel Dariush, to being flat out being mediocre. A loss to debutant Mike Breeden would be a backbreaker in his career, and how the UFC views him. However, Hernandez should be able to win this fight. Breeden, while a good striker, has had some trouble with wrestlers. Hernandez, being mainly a wrestler, should find success there. Another area where Hernandez is going to have success is striking. Breeden has shown signs of poor striking defense, especially against Anthony Romero, who nearly landed six significant strikes per minute on ‘Money’. 

As for a prediction, I have Hernandez winning. He is the better overall fighter and with a full training camp, he should be able to impose his will on Breeden for many of the reasons I’ve already pointed out. The one aspect that has hurt Hernandez lately is cardio, but given the pace he sets, it’s expected. Against Breeden, who is stepping in on short notice, he himself could tire before Hernandez. However, I don’t see that coming into play. Instead, I see Hernandez winning via TKO.

PICK: Alexander Hernandez (-500)

 

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