Paulo Costa vs Marvin Vettori Odds, Preview and Prediction, October 23 (10/23): UFC

Paulo Costa vs Marvin Vettori Odds, Preview and Prediction, October 23 (10/23): UFC

  • KV13
  • Kv13
  • Oct 21, 2021, 5:18:34 PM
Credit: photo by Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Time (Main Card) 4:00 p.m. EST
Paulo Costa money line +125
Marvin Vettori money line -150


Key stats
  Paulo Costa Marvin Vettori
Height 6'1 6'0
Weight 185 185
Reach 72' 74'
Record 13-1 17-4-1
Streak L1 L1
Last 5 4-1 4-1




In the main event of the evening, we have an important Middleweight bout between former title challengers Paulo ‘The Eraser’ Costa and Marvin ‘The Italian Dream’ Vettori. Both men respectively return to the octagon after being denied by Israel Adesanya in their quest for UFC gold. Costa has been out longer however, having not fought since September of 2020. An illness and a contract dispute is the culprit for lost time, as Costa withdrew from fights against Robert Whittaker and Jared Cannonier. Meanwhile, Vettori will look to bounce back after losing a decision to Adesanya in June. A fight that somehow Vettori thought he won, even though he was outpointed in practically every round. Prior to the loss, Vettori had won five consecutive fights.



This is a fun fight, and one that I’m interested to see where both are at mentally. Paulo Costa blamed his title defeat to drinking the night before the fight. A bizarre thing to do and say, but Costa maintains that excuse. In my opinion, Costa is simply too big for Middleweight and the cut down most likely drained him to the point of diminishing returns. Then there is Marvin Vettori, who has fought Israel Adesanya twice. The first being a split decision and a fight that could have been awarded to Vettori. However, the second fight was not even close. Vettori’s coaches in the fight even told him such, but after the fight and even still, Vettori believes he was robbed again. Regardless these two make for an enticing fight. Costa is a striker who uses pressure and high output to swarm you. Having surprisingly good cardio and pretty good power, Costa has often broken opponents. Vettori however is the more well rounded fighter. Having solid striking and wrestling abilities, along with excellent durability, Vettori is stylistically a tough fight for the majority of Middleweights.

As for a prediction, I have Vettori. I believe that Costa is killing himself to get down to 185 pounds. In doing so, it leaves him extremely compromised. Throw in the fact that Vettori is well rounded and could very well neutralize the Brazilian via wrestling alone. In my opinion, I believe Costa made a huge error here. Sometimes you have to let go of things and move up. Look at Dustin Poirier. He failed at Featherweight, moved up and is one of, if not the best Lightweight on the planet. I guess we shall see, but the fact of the matter is, I have Vettori winning. Let’s say via late TKO.


PICK: Marvin Vettori (-150)


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