Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 11 (10/11) MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Pick and Preview, October 11 (10/11) MLB

 

Odds

Time 9:37 p.m. EST
Padres money line +180
Padres run line +1.5 (-120)
Dodgers money line -220
Dodgers run line -1.5 (+100)
Over / under 7

 

Key stats

  San Diego Padres  Los Angeles Dodgers
Record 91-74 111-51
Road / home record 47-37 57-24
Last 10 record 5-5 6-4
Streak W1 W1
Over / under record 77-82-6 68-83-11
Runs / game 4.37 5.23
Runs allowed / game 4.05 3.17

 

Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers will host the San Diego Padres to play the first 2 games of the National League Divisional Series at the Dodger Stadium. The Padres upset the Mets 2-1 in the Wild Card Series but have been dominated by the Dodgers this season with a 5-14 record so far against them.

 

San Diego Padres

The Padres get here with a 91-74 record and have won 4 of their last 6 games. The team is averaging 4.37 runs per game and they're batting for .241 AVG, have 705 runs scored in 1318 hits and 153 home runs, ranking #12 in offense in the league behind the San Francisco Giants. Manny Machado is leading the team with 32 home runs and 102 RBI and a batting average of .296.

Defensively they are allowing 4.05 runs per game and rank #10 in the league. Yu Darvish leads the pitching staff with a 3.10 ERA, 197 strikeouts and 16 wins recorded for the Padres.

Probable Pitcher:  Mike Clevinger (7-7, 4.33 ERA)

Clevinger will be on the mound in the 1st game of the series for the Padres. Clevinger landed on the COVID-19 injured list Wednesday but was able to travel with the team for the NL Wild Card Series after testing negative for the virus. Over his final six starts of the regular season, Clevinger posted a 6.52 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 29 innings. He has a record of 0-2 with an ERA of 9.69 and 11 strikeouts in 3 appearances against the Dodgers in his career.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers get here with a 111-51 record and have lost 3 of their last 4 games. The team is averaging 5.23 runs per game and they're batting for .257 AVG, 847 runs scored in 1418 hits and 212 home runs, ranking #1 in offense in the league. Mookie Bets leads the team batting for .269 AVG. and 35 home runs while Freddie Freeman has 100 RBI. 

Defensively they are allowing 3.17 runs per game and rank #1 in the league. Julio Urias leads the team with a 2.16 ERA, 166 strikeouts and 17 wins recorded.

Probable Pitcher:   Julio Urias (17-7, 2.16 ERA)

Urias will be on the mound in the 1st game of the series for the Dodgers. Urias will formally start the postseason as the Dodgers' ace after posting a 2.16 ERA and 0.96 WHIP that were both career highs in 2022. Since the beginning of September, Urias has faced the Padres three times, giving up three earned runs while striking out 12 batters over 19 innings. He is 6-1 with an ERA of 2.19 and 59 strikeouts in 15 appearances against the Padres in his career.

 

BETTING TRENDS

San Diego are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games.

San Diego are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against LA Dodgers.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games on the road.

San Diego are 2-14 SU in their last 16 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers.

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Dodgers' last 10 games.

LA Dodgers are 13-7 SU in their last 20 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Dodgers' last 5 games at home.

 

Prediction

The Padres surprised us all after beating the Mets at the Citi Field 2 of 3 times to win the Wild Card Series but they'll now have to face the best team in the league who has dominated them this season. Mike Clevinger will start for the Padres who has been up and down this season and the Dodgers pounded him every time they met. CY Young contender Julio Urias will get the ball for this game who's having an insane season and has dominated the Padres in his career. The Padres might be hot right now but the Dodgers have been hot all season so go with the Dodgers to win the first game of the series.

PICK: Dodgers -1.5 (+100) 

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