Saturday, May 10, 2025 – MLB Game Previews and Betting Picks

Atlanta Braves at Pittsburgh Pirates (4:05 PM ET)

Probable Pitchers: AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL, 2-2, 3.00 ERA) vs. Andrew Heaney (PIT, 2-3, 3.18 ERA)
Odds: Braves -150 (favorites), Pirates +125; Total 8.5 runs

The Braves (18-20) look to build momentum after an up-and-down start. Rookie right-hander AJ Smith-Shawver has been impressive, bringing a mid-3.00s ERA and good strikeout stuff. He faces a Pirates lineup that ranks near the bottom of the league in scoring. Pittsburgh (13-26) has struggled offensively, though Andrew Heaney has given them solid innings since joining the rotation. The lefty Heaney will need to contain Atlanta’s power hitters (Braves star Ronald Acuña Jr. has been red-hot). Offensively, Atlanta’s deep lineup (featuring Acuña, Matt Olson, and Ozzie Albies) has a clear edge over a Pirates team that has lacked consistent run production. PNC Park is a pitcher-friendly park, but the Braves’ bats and the Pirates’ shaky bullpen could still produce runs late.

Best Bet: Braves -1.5 Run Line. Atlanta’s offense and overall talent gap suggest a multi-run win against a struggling Pirates squad.

Top Player Prop: Ronald Acuña Jr. Over 1.5 total bases – He’s a threat to tally extra-base hits and should tee off against a Pirates pitching staff that he matches up well against.

St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals (4:05 PM ET)

Probable Pitchers: Andre Pallante (STL, 2-2, 4.75 ERA) vs. Trevor Williams (WSH, 2-3, 5.86 ERA)
Odds: Cardinals -115, Nationals -105; Total 9.5 runs

St. Louis (20-19) and Washington (17-22) open their series in D.C. with both teams trying to find consistency. The Cardinals have won 5 of their last 7 and bring a balanced lineup led by Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. They’ll face Trevor Williams, who has a bloated 5.86 ERA and tends to give up plenty of contact. The Nats have been pesky at home but lack power; their offense relies on stringing singles together and the occasional big hit from Jeimer Candelario or Lane Thomas. Cards righty Andre Pallante is more of a swingman with a middling 4.75 ERA – he can be hit if his command falters. Expect both teams to put runners on base given these pitching matchups. Nationals Park plays fairly neutral, but warm weather could help carry the ball. If the Cardinals’ bullpen (which has been shaky at times) is needed early, the Nats could capitalize late.

Best Bet: Over 9.5 runs. Both Pallante and Williams have high ERAs and neither offense is dominant, but together they should scratch across enough runs to hit double digits in total.

Top Player Prop: Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 total bases – The Cardinals’ slugger is hitting well and gets a favorable matchup against Williams’s fastball. A double or a couple of singles from Goldy is very achievable.

New York Yankees at Oakland Athletics – Game 1 (4:05 PM ET)

Probable Pitchers: Will Warren (NYY, 1-2, 5.65 ERA) vs. Osvaldo Bido (OAK, 2-2, 4.71 ERA)
Odds: Yankees likely around -140, Athletics +120 (estimated); Total ~9.0 runs

Game 1 of a doubleheader in Sacramento, CA (Sutter Health Park). The Yankees (21-16) and Athletics (20-18) meet in an unusual setting – a minor league ballpark – to make up a postponed game. New York sends out young righty Will Warren, who has been hit-or-miss in limited action (5.65 ERA). Oakland counters with Osvaldo Bido, a journeyman with a mid-4s ERA. The Yankees offense has been on fire thanks to Aaron Judge’s MVP-caliber start (.400 average with 12 HR), and they should benefit from the hitter-friendly dimensions of Sutter Health Park. The A’s have been a surprise .500-type team early on, with Brent Rooker (9 HR) and rookie Tyler Soderstrom providing pop, but their lineup is thinner than New York’s. Defense and depth also favor the Yankees. In a seven-inning ballgame or full nine (MLB doubleheaders in 2025 are full 9 innings), expect the Yankees to push the tempo offensively to support the inexperienced Warren. Ballpark factors are a wildcard – Sacramento’s park could yield some extra offense.

Best Bet: Yankees Moneyline. Even with a young starter on the mound, New York’s lineup advantage should carry them in the opener of the twin bill.

Top Player Prop: Aaron Judge to hit a home run. Judge’s power plus the smaller park make a homer in Game 1 a enticing prop. (If you prefer a safer play, Judge Over 1.5 total bases is also a strong choice given his form.)

New York Yankees at Oakland Athletics – Game 2 (9:10 PM ET)

Probable Pitchers: Carlos Rodón (NYY, 4-3, 2.96 ERA) vs. JP Sears (OAK, 4-2, 2.93 ERA)
Odds: Yankees -160, Athletics +135; Total 9.5 runs

The nightcap in Sacramento features a compelling lefty pitching duel. The Yankees send ace Carlos Rodón, who’s been excellent with a sub-3.00 ERA and high strikeout totals. Oakland will counter with former Yankee JP Sears, who also sports a sub-3.00 ERA and knows the Bronx Bombers’ tendencies well. The Yankees offense will look to adjust from Game 1 into this one – stars like Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, and Gleyber Torres will need to drive in runs off the crafty Sears. The A’s will hope for a strong outing from Sears to keep the game close; offensively Oakland might struggle versus Rodón’s dominant fastball/slider combination. Ballpark note: After seeing how the ball carried in Game 1, both teams might adjust their hitting approach for Game 2. The Yankees’ bullpen is in good shape with Clay Holmes and others ready if Rodón hands over a lead, whereas Oakland’s bullpen has been mediocre. Look for New York to play this one a bit tighter and low-scoring, leaning on Rodón to set the tone.

Best Bet: Under 9.5 runs. With two quality left-handers on the mound and lineups already playing once today, runs could be at a premium in Game 2. Rodón and Sears are capable of trading zeros for much of the night.

Top Player Prop: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases – Even in a game we expect fewer runs, it’s hard not to back Judge in some form. He could easily notch a couple of doubles or a homer across his likely 4-5 plate appearances in the evening game.

Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays – Game 1 (1:10 PM ET)

Probable Pitchers: José Quintana (MIL, 4-1, 2.83 ERA) vs. Zack Littell (TB, 2-5, 4.61 ERA)
Odds: Rays roughly -115, Brewers -105 (estimated); Total ~8.5 runs

Game 1 of a doubleheader being played at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa (the Yankees’ Spring Training stadium). The Brewers (19-20) and Rays (17-21) start their day-night doubleheader with Milwaukee sending veteran lefty José Quintana to the mound. Quintana has been a stabilizing force, posting a 2.83 ERA and working efficiently into games. Tampa Bay starts Zack Littell, a right-hander who has struggled with consistency (4.61 ERA and a 2-5 record). The venue change is notable: playing in a spring training park could lead to more offense due to unfamiliar sight-lines and potentially smaller dimensions than Tropicana Field. Milwaukee’s lineup has been inconsistent, but Christian Yelich and Willy Adames provide pop from the left side against Littell. The Rays, meanwhile, still feature Randy Arozarena and Wander Franco to spark their offense, but they’ve underperformed at home this season. In this early game, the Brewers might have the edge on the mound with Quintana’s experience. If he can navigate the Rays’ lineup, Milwaukee’s bullpen can handle the later innings. Tampa will look to jump on Quintana early with aggressive baserunning and try to exploit any rust from the morning start.

Best Bet: Brewers Moneyline. Quintana’s form and the slight uncertainty for Tampa in a non-traditional home setting give Milwaukee a good chance to take the opener.

Top Player Prop: Christian Yelich Over 1.5 total bases – Yelich has been reaching base at a solid clip. Against Littell (who allows a .280 average to lefties), Yelich could easily notch a couple of singles or an extra-base hit in Game 1.

Milwaukee Brewers at Tampa Bay Rays – Game 2 (4:10 PM ET)

Probable Pitchers: Tobias Myers (MIL, 1-0, 3.65 ERA) vs. Taj Bradley (TB, 3-2, 4.43 ERA)
Odds: Rays -135, Brewers +115; Total 9.5 runs

In the scheduled second game, the Rays turn to promising rookie Taj Bradley. Bradley is a hard-throwing righty with strikeout ability, though his 4.43 ERA shows he’s had a few rough outings. The Brewers will likely use Tobias Myers as an opener or bulk guy – Myers has a 3.65 ERA in limited duty. Offense could tick up in this late afternoon contest, especially if bullpens are taxed from Game 1. Tampa Bay’s hitters, such as Yandy Díaz and Brandon Lowe, may adjust better by Game 2 to the Steinbrenner Field environment. The Brewers might shuffle their lineup a bit, but keep an eye on power bat Rowdy Tellez, who could feast on Bradley’s fastball if Bradley falls behind in counts. Both teams’ relief corps will be crucial; the Rays usually have a bullpen advantage with high-leverage arms like Jason Adam and Pete Fairbanks (if available), whereas Milwaukee will lean on Devin Williams if they have a lead. Expect an uptick in scoring opportunities especially the second or third time lineups see pitching in the same day.

Best Bet: Over 9.5 runs. Fatigue and familiarity could set in, and both teams may score more freely in Game 2. Bradley’s electric stuff comes with occasional command issues, and Milwaukee can capitalize on mistakes; meanwhile, Tampa should produce against Milwaukee’s less-proven arms.

Top Player Prop: Taj Bradley Over 5.5 strikeouts – Even if we expect runs, Bradley is capable of racking up Ks. The Brewers strike out frequently, and Bradley could reach 6+ strikeouts in five or six innings of work before handing it over to the bullpen.

Philadelphia Phillies at Cleveland Guardians – Game 1 (1:10 PM ET)

Probable Pitchers: Aaron Nola (PHI, 1-5, 4.61 ERA) vs. Gavin Williams (CLE, 2-2, 5.06 ERA)
Odds: Phillies -120, Guardians +100 (estimated); Total ~8.0 runs

The Phillies (22-16) and Guardians (23-15) open a twin bill after a rainout, with both teams sporting identical records and looking to stay hot. Philadelphia ace Aaron Nola hasn’t had his best start (1-5 record), but he’s still the kind of pitcher who can dominate on any given day. Cleveland will counter with young fireballer Gavin Williams, who has electric stuff but a high ERA in his first handful of big-league outings. The Guardians have been excellent at home (12-5) thanks to their contact-oriented offense and strong bullpen. José Ramírez remains the engine for Cleveland’s lineup – look for him to challenge Nola in key spots. The Phillies offense, powered by Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner, can be explosive but has been streaky. Progressive Field in the early afternoon could play hitter-friendly if the humidity is up. With Nola and Williams, we might see quite a few strikeouts but also the potential for the long ball if either makes mistakes over the plate. Defense and bullpen usage will be interesting to watch since both teams need to manage a second game later.

Best Bet: Over 8 runs. Neither Nola nor Williams has been at peak performance, and both lineups have enough talent to push this total above the number. Early runs could set the tone, and even if Nola settles in, the bullpens might give up a few late as they try to save arms for Game 2.

Top Player Prop: José Ramírez Over 1.5 total bases – Cleveland’s star switch-hitter is the toughest out in their lineup. He could easily rip a double or a pair of singles off Nola or the Phillies’ middle relief. Ramírez’s gap power from both sides makes this a strong prop in Game 1.

Philadelphia Phillies at Cleveland Guardians – Game 2 (6:10 PM ET)

Probable Pitchers: Ranger Suárez (PHI, 0-0, 17.18 ERA) vs. Tanner Bibee (CLE, 3-2, 4.26 ERA)
Odds: Phillies -125, Guardians +105; Total 7.5 runs

In the nightcap, the Phillies hand the ball to lefty Ranger Suárez, who is still finding his form after a delayed start to his season (hence the sky-high ERA in a very small sample). Cleveland starts Tanner Bibee, one of their talented young arms, who has been solid with a 3-2 record and 4.26 ERA. Bibee faces a tough task against a Phillies lineup that could feature plenty of lefty-mashers like J.T. Realmuto and Trea Turner (Philadelphia may sit one of their lefty sluggers like Schwarber against the Guardians’ right-hander in this game). The Guardians typically fare better against left-handed pitching, so keep an eye on Josh Naylor and Andrés Giménez to do damage against Suárez. If Suárez is back to full strength, he’s a groundball machine who can keep the Guardians hitters off-balance. This could end up being a lower-scoring affair, especially early, as both teams might be a bit fatigued and will have seen a lot of pitching over the day. Cleveland’s bullpen (Emmanuel Clase and company) is a major asset if it’s a close game late, whereas the Phillies might turn to Craig Kimbrel or José Alvarado in the late innings.

Best Bet: Guardians +1.5 Run Line. This profiles as a one-run game either way. Cleveland at home in Game 2 of a doubleheader should keep it tight, if not win outright. Taking the run and a half provides a cushion in what could be a pitcher’s duel if Suárez bounces back.

Top Player Prop: Josh Naylor Over 0.5 RBI. Naylor has been Cleveland’s clutch RBI man, especially against lefties where he often stays in and delivers key hits. With the chances that someone like Steven Kwan or Amed Rosario gets on ahead of him, Naylor could drive in a run in this game.

Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers (6:10 PM ET)

Probable Pitchers: Jacob deGrom (TEX, 2-1, 2.61 ERA) vs. Jack Flaherty (DET, 1-4, 3.79 ERA)
Odds: Even (TEX -110, DET -110); Total 7.5 runs

One of the day’s marquee pitching matchups sees the Rangers (18-21) visiting the surging Tigers (26-13). Detroit has been one of the season’s biggest surprises, sitting atop the AL Central thanks to a 16-5 home record and a recent hot streak. The Tigers will have their work cut out for them against Jacob deGrom, arguably the best pitcher in baseball when healthy. DeGrom has a 2.61 ERA with dominant strikeout numbers and is capable of silencing any lineup. Detroit counters with Jack Flaherty, who has reinvented himself in Motown with a respectable 3.79 ERA. Flaherty is familiar with the Rangers from his Cardinals days and has shown flashes of his old ace form, though run support has been an issue (hence the 1-4 record). The Rangers offense, even without some injured pieces, is dangerous – Marcus Semien and Corey Seager (if healthy) set the table and Adolis García provides the power. However, they’ve been inconsistent, which is why they’re below .500. Detroit’s offense doesn’t have big names, but Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson have been coming through in clutch moments, and the team is excelling at manufacturing runs and playing small ball when needed. In spacious Comerica Park, pitching and defense often rule; expect deGrom to attack aggressively and Flaherty to try to match zeros and keep his pitch count manageable.

Best Bet: Under 7.5 runs. With deGrom on the mound, runs for Detroit will be hard to come by. Flaherty should also benefit from a Rangers lineup that can be neutralized by good breaking pitching. A 3-2 type game is on the table here, so the under looks solid.

Top Player Prop: Jacob deGrom Over 8.5 strikeouts. DeGrom is a strikeout machine and the Tigers, despite their success, are a free-swinging young lineup. In a cool evening in Detroit, deGrom could easily rack up 9 or more Ks over 6-7 innings.

Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals (7:10 PM ET)

Probable Pitchers: Garrett Crochet (BOS, 3-2, 2.02 ERA) vs. Cole Ragans (KC, 2-1, 3.79 ERA)
Odds: Red Sox -120, Royals +100; Total 7.5 runs

Don’t let the records fool you – the Royals (24-16) are one of the hottest teams in baseball, having won 16 of their last 18 games. They’ll host the Red Sox (20-20) in Kauffman Stadium after a dramatic extra-inning win last night (Kansas City walked off Boston 2-1 in 12 innings). The Red Sox send out left-hander Garrett Crochet, normally a reliever, making a spot start. Crochet has been excellent in long relief (2.02 ERA), but this will test him as he likely won’t go deep (3-4 innings maximum). The Royals counter with young lefty Cole Ragans, who has pitched to a 3.79 ERA and shown good poise. Kansas City is riding high – their offense isn’t loaded with stars, but players like Vinnie Pasquantino, MJ Melendez, and Bobby Witt Jr. have delivered timely hits. Witt Jr.’s speed and power combination makes him a constant threat (he had the game-winning RBI last night). Boston’s lineup has been inconsistent; one night they’ll put up 10 runs, another they’ll get shut down as we saw yesterday. Rafael Devers remains the big bat, and Masataka Yoshida has been a spark, but they’ll need to adjust to a largely unfamiliar arm in Ragans. With both starting pitchers being young and not typical rotation mainstays, both bullpens should see significant action. The Royals’ bullpen has been lights out during this hot streak (closer Scott Barlow is racking up saves), while Boston’s relief corps is a bit more of a question mark. Look for Kansas City to try to steal bases and put pressure on the young Boston pitchers and defense.

Best Bet: Royals Moneyline. Taking the even money on a team that’s 16-2 in their last 18 and at home is hard to pass up. The Royals have a knack for winning tight games lately, and their small-ball style matches up well if this becomes a bullpen battle.

Top Player Prop: Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 total bases. Witt Jr. has been doing it all – hitting for extra bases, bunting, legging out infield hits. Against the lefty Crochet (and later righty relievers), he could easily notch a couple of singles or a double. His speed turns even a routine single into a potential stretch for a double, so we like him to accumulate bases tonight.

Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros (7:10 PM ET)

Probable Pitchers: Brady Singer (CIN, 4-2, 3.66 ERA) vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU, 0-0, 0.00 ERA)
Odds: Astros -150, Reds +125; Total 7.5 runs

The Astros (19-18) have clawed back to just above .500 and will look to keep the Reds (19-21) slumping. Houston won 3-0 last night behind a great outing from Hunter Brown, and now they activate Lance McCullers Jr. for his first start of the season. McCullers has been rehabbing an injury; when healthy, he’s an All-Star caliber pitcher with a devastating curveball, but expect him to be on a pitch limit in his debut. The visiting Reds have been labeled “slumping” after that shutout – they’ve lost a few in a row and scored very few runs in the past week. Cincinnati sends Brady Singer, who ironically was acquired from Kansas City recently and has been a bright spot with a 4-2 record and sub-4 ERA. Singer is a sinkerballer who, when on, can induce a lot of grounders. He’ll need that skill against a powerful Astros lineup that includes Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and José Altuve (Altuve is back healthy and adding a spark at the top of the order). Houston hasn’t been lighting up scoreboards, but they’ve done enough behind strong pitching. In this game, with McCullers likely only going 4-5 innings, the Astros bullpen (which has been very effective, including Rafael Montero and Ryan Pressly) will factor in heavily. Cincinnati’s offense revolves around Jonathan India and Jake Fraley, but they’ll have a tough task in Minute Maid—now renamed “Daikin Park” this season—especially if they fall behind early. Look for Houston to try to get McCullers some early run support to ease him in. The total is low at 7.5, reflecting respect for these pitchers.

Best Bet: Under 7.5 runs. Singer has been solid and can keep the Astros to a couple of runs, and the Reds are struggling to score against anyone. McCullers plus Houston’s bullpen could very well blank Cincinnati again or hold them to 1-2 runs. This has the feel of a 4-2 kind of game.

Top Player Prop: Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases. Alvarez is a doubles and homers machine. Singer pitches to contact, and Alvarez’s left-handed power should square up one of those sinkers at some point. One gapper from Yordan could cover this prop with ease.

Miami Marlins at Chicago White Sox (7:10 PM ET)

Probable Pitchers: Edward Cabrera (MIA, 0-1, 6.29 ERA) vs. Shane Smith (CHW, 1-2, 2.41 ERA)
Odds: Marlins -110, White Sox -110; Total 8.5 runs

Two struggling teams meet on the South Side as the Marlins (14-23) face the White Sox (11-28). Chicago’s season has been miserable, but they did steal a 3-0 win in their last game and will try to build on that. They give the ball to rookie Shane Smith, who in limited action has a shiny 2.41 ERA. Smith isn’t a big name, but he’s shown good control and poise in his first few starts and now faces a Miami lineup that is among the lowest-scoring in MLB. The Marlins counter with Edward Cabrera, a young right-hander with electric stuff but trouble harnessing it (hence the 6.29 ERA). Cabrera can either dominate or implode depending on his command on any given night. The Marlins’ offense has revolved around Luis Arraez’s batting average and Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s occasional power, but overall they’ve been quiet; playing in the pitcher-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field (yes, despite its name, it’s actually played more neutral-to-pitcher in recent years) won’t necessarily wake their bats. The White Sox offense, aside from Luis Robert Jr., has been similarly anemic. Robert is one bright spot – he provides power in the middle of the lineup and will be a key against Cabrera’s fastball. This game could easily turn on a couple of swings or a defensive miscue. Neither team has a clear bullpen advantage; both bullpens have ERAs north of 4.00, so late innings could see some runs if the game is close. However, if both young starters pitch to their potential, we might see a low-scoring duel.

Best Bet: Under 8.5 runs. It’s tough to trust either lineup to put up big numbers. The White Sox have scored very little in recent games, and the Marlins aren’t much better. Unless Cabrera has a meltdown with walks, this feels like a 4-3 or 3-2 type game.

Top Player Prop: Luis Robert Jr. Over 1.5 total bases. Robert is the most talented hitter in this game. He’s been one of the few Sox producing, and Cabrera’s occasional wildness might actually give Robert a hittable pitch or two. A double or a couple of singles from Robert is a good bet given his .290+ average and ability to find gaps.

Chicago Cubs at New York Mets (7:15 PM ET) (FOX National Broadcast)

Probable Pitchers: Brad Keller (CHC, 0-0, 3.78 ERA) vs. Tylor Megill (NYM, 3-2, 2.50 ERA)
Odds: Mets -160, Cubs +135; Total 8.5 runs

It’s a Saturday night showcase at Citi Field as the Mets (25-14) host the Cubs (22-17). New York has been fantastic at home (14-3) and sits near the top of the NL East. They’ll rely on Tylor Megill, who has quietly been excellent with a 2.50 ERA. Megill is filling in the Mets’ rotation due to injuries and making a case to stick; he’s been mixing a mid-90s fastball with a biting slider effectively, and he draws a Cubs lineup that can be potent but also prone to slumps. The Cubs send Brad Keller to the mound; Keller was recently signed and has appeared in relief, but now makes a spot start. He’s a veteran innings-eater type, but control issues have dogged him in the past (watch for walks). Chicago’s offense is led by Dansby Swanson and Ian Happ, and they’ve gotten a nice surprise in Cody Bellinger’s resurgence this year. However, facing Megill on the road will be a test – the Mets’ pitching has stifled opponents lately. Offensively, the Mets are clicking. Pete Alonso is among the league leaders in homers, Francisco Lindor is driving in runs, and Brandon Nimmo sets the table brilliantly. Against Keller (whom many of the Mets hitters have seen from his time with Kansas City), they’ll be patient and wait for mistakes. The Mets’ bullpen has also been a strength, with closer Edwin Díaz back to form and setup men like David Robertson locking games down. The Cubs’ bullpen is a bit more volatile. To stay in this game, Chicago likely needs a strong outing from Keller and a few timely long balls. If the Mets score early, the crowd will be into it and it could snowball.

Best Bet: Mets -1.5 Run Line. The Mets at home with a pitching advantage and a hotter lineup are a good bet to win by at least two. Chicago might keep it close early, but New York’s depth should pull away, something like a 6-3 win for the Mets feels plausible.

Top Player Prop: Pete Alonso to hit a home run. “Polar Bear” Alonso loves hitting in front of the home crowd and already has a bunch of bombs this season. Keller is a contact pitcher without overpowering velocity – a recipe for Alonso to potentially launch one into the Citi Field seats. If you want a more conservative prop: Alonso Over 1.5 total bases is another way to back his power (a double would cash it).

San Francisco Giants at Minnesota Twins (7:15 PM ET) (FOX National Broadcast)

Probable Pitchers: Logan Webb (SF, 4-2, 2.61 ERA) vs. Joe Ryan (MIN, 2-2, 2.93 ERA)
Odds: Twins -120, Giants +100; Total 7.5 runs

One of the best pitching matchups of the day sees the Giants (24-15) visiting the Twins (19-20). San Francisco is playing excellent baseball and finds itself in the thick of the NL West race, while Minnesota leads the AL Central despite being under .500, thanks to a weak division. The Giants send sinkerball specialist Logan Webb to the mound. Webb has a sterling 2.61 ERA and is a groundball machine who also misses a fair number of bats. He thrives at inducing soft contact, which will be useful in Target Field, a park that can suppress offense especially in the cool night air. Minnesota counters with Joe Ryan, their young ace who sports a 2.93 ERA. Ryan attacks hitters with a high-spin fastball and a splitter, and he’s capable of going deep into games. This has the makings of a low-scoring duel. The Giants offense doesn’t have huge household names, but Mike Yastrzemski, Thairo Estrada, and veteran Joc Pederson (platooning as a DH) have all contributed. They tend to score in bunches or not at all – and against Ryan, runs may be scarce. The Twins are somewhat similar; their lineup has struggled, with Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton not yet lighting it up this year. Rookie Royce Lewis has provided a spark, and Joey Gallo can always run into one, but overall the Twins have been winning games with pitching. Both bullpens are in decent shape – Camilo Doval is a flame-throwing closer for SF, and Jhoan Duran is Minnesota’s own 102-mph ninth-inning weapon. This game could very well hinge on a single swing or a mistake. Defense will also be critical; the Giants are known for shifting and positioning well, while the Twins need to support Ryan by converting every routine play.

Best Bet: Under 7.5 runs. This is a classic pitchers’ duel on paper and should play out that way. Neither team will want to make the first mistake. Webb and Ryan are adept at keeping hitters off balance. A 3-2 final (whichever way it goes) would not surprise anyone.

Top Player Prop: Logan Webb Over 5.5 strikeouts. Webb isn’t known as a strikeout artist like some aces, but the Twins strike out a lot as a team. Given that Minnesota’s lineup has several free swingers (Gallo, Buxton, etc.), Webb could quietly pile up 6 or 7 punchouts over 7 innings while still keeping his pitch count low.

San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies (8:10 PM ET)

Probable Pitchers: Stephen Kolek (SD, 1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Bradley Blalock (COL, 0-1, 8.03 ERA)
Odds: Padres -205, Rockies +170; Total 11.5 runs

Whenever there’s a game at Coors Field, expect the unexpected – and usually a lot of offense. The Rockies (6-31) have the worst record in baseball and are in full rebuild mode, while the Padres (23-13) are near the top of the NL West and come in as massive favorites. San Diego is opting for a bullpen game or spot start with Stephen Kolek, who in limited action has yet to allow an earned run. Kolek will likely only go a couple of innings, serving as an opener. Colorado gives the ball to Bradley Blalock, a young righty who has an ERA over 8 in his few appearances. This is a tough assignment for Blalock, as the Padres boast a star-studded lineup featuring Juan Soto, Fernando Tatís Jr., Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts. The thin air in Denver could very well help a few of those guys find the seats – even a normally pitcher like Soto, who has been heating up of late, can get a boost in Coors. The Rockies, on the other hand, will try to generate offense as they usually do at home. They scored 7 runs in a loss last night and still lost by a touchdown. Keep an eye on Kris Bryant and C.J. Cron (if healthy) for power, and rookie Ezequiel Tovar for some spark. The big issue for Colorado is pitching; their bullpen is also overtaxed and underperforming. San Diego’s relievers will have to cover many innings, but they have a deeper bullpen and the luxury of a large margin for error given Colorado’s struggles. With an over/under of 11.5, oddsmakers are expecting fireworks. Unless either offense surprisingly goes cold, we should see plenty of scoring.

Best Bet: Over 11.5 runs. It’s always a bit dicey to take such a high over, but Coors Field is the place to do it. Two inexperienced pitchers and two bullpens likely to give up runs make a slugfest likely. Both teams could easily reach the five-run mark, and something like 8-5 or 10-4 is a reasonable projection here.

Top Player Prop: Fernando Tatís Jr. to hit a home run. Tatís has been rounding into form and Coors is the perfect venue for his prodigious power. Facing a rookie pitcher and a weak bullpen, he’ll have multiple chances to go deep. The value is there on a homer prop. (If you prefer a milder take: Tatís Over 1.5 total bases is very appealing too, as he could cover that with one well-struck ball in the gap.)

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks (8:10 PM ET)

Probable Pitchers: Dustin May (LAD, 1-2, 4.36 ERA) vs. Corbin Burnes (ARI, 1-1, 3.58 ERA)
Odds: Dodgers -120, Diamondbacks +100; Total 9.5 runs

This NL West clash features the division-leading Dodgers (25-13) against the third-place Diamondbacks (20-18). It’s an intriguing matchup because Arizona will have ace Corbin Burnes on the mound – Burnes, the 2021 Cy Young winner with Milwaukee, was acquired in a blockbuster trade and has been solid for the D-backs (3.58 ERA). The Dodgers counter with Dustin May, a talented young righty still working his way back to consistency after elbow surgery; he’s had an up-and-down year, as indicated by the 4.36 ERA. When May is on, he generates weak contact with a sinking high-90s fastball, but control can escape him at times. Burnes, on the other hand, is a strike-thrower with a nasty cutter and curve. The Dodgers lineup, though, is one of the best in baseball. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith form a formidable top of the order that can manufacture runs against anyone – they’ll try to be patient and drive up Burnes’ pitch count to get him out by the 6th. Arizona’s offense has been better than many expected. Ketel Marte is having a bounce-back year, and rookie Corbin Carroll brings excitement with power and speed. Still, the D-backs face a challenge in solving Dustin May and then the elite Dodger bullpen (Evan Phillips and Brusdar Graterol have been excellent late). Arizona’s bullpen has been a weakness; if Burnes doesn’t go deep, LA could feast in the final frames. Chase Field typically is neutral, but with these lineups a few balls could carry out (especially with the roof open on a pleasant night). This game feels like it could be tight until the bullpens take over.

Best Bet: Dodgers -120 Moneyline. It’s essentially a pick’em, but the Dodgers just find ways to win these kinds of games. Even if Burnes out-duels May early, Los Angeles has the depth (especially in the pen and bench) to capitalize late. They’ve also dominated Arizona in recent years, so until the D-backs prove otherwise, lean Dodgers.

Top Player Prop: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases. Freeman is as steady as they come, batting well over .300. He’s likely to see a lot of Burnes’ cutters and could shoot one into the gap for extra bases. Freddie has good history against top-tier pitching and rarely has a quiet night – a 2-for-4 with a double would cash this prop nicely.

Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels (9:38 PM ET)

Probable Pitchers: Kyle Gibson (BAL, 0-1, 14.09 ERA) vs. Jack Kochanowicz (LAA, 1-5, 5.79 ERA)
Odds: Orioles -150, Angels +125; Total 9.5 runs

It’s a bit surprising to see the Orioles (13-23) as solid favorites on the road given their record, but that speaks to the state of the Angels (15-21) and the pitching matchup. Baltimore’s veteran righty Kyle Gibson has an ugly 14.09 ERA, largely due to one disastrous outing. He’s typically an innings-eater who pitches to contact. The Angels will send Jack Kochanowicz to the hill – a young right-hander who’s 1-5 with a 5.79 ERA. Kochanowicz has taken his lumps in his first taste of big-league action, and an Orioles lineup that’s better than its record indicates could cause him more trouble. Baltimore’s offense is led by catcher Adley Rutschman, who is an on-base machine, and Anthony Santander’s switch-hitting power. They haven’t always clicked this year, but facing an inexperienced pitcher could be the recipe. The Angels, on the other hand, have had issues scoring beyond the big names. Mike Trout is still Mike Trout – he’s healthy and slashing the ball, and Brandon Drury has provided some pop – but the Halos sorely miss the days of having Shohei Ohtani in the lineup (Ohtani departed via free agency after 2023). They’ll need youngsters like Zach Neto or Jo Adell to step up to support Trout. This game could turn into a bit of a slugfest: Angel Stadium isn’t typically a hitter’s park, but mediocre pitching can make any venue look small. Both bullpens are question marks; the Orioles’ bullpen, a strength last year, has been average, while the Angels’ pen often struggles to hold leads. If Gibson can’t find his groove early, the Orioles might turn to long relief and make this a high-scoring, see-saw affair. Neither team has much momentum coming in, so this is a chance for one of them to right the ship.

Best Bet: Over 9.5 runs. With two starters carrying ERAs that high and bullpens that are far from lockdown, the over is the play. Trout and the Angels should plate some runs off Gibson, and the Orioles are likely to do damage against Kochanowicz and a thin Angels pitching staff. A 7-5 or 6-4 type game would not surprise at all.

Top Player Prop: Mike Trout Over 1.5 total bases. Trout is still among the best in baseball and has been heating up. He could cover this with one swing (a double or better) or just a couple of singles. Against Gibson (whom Trout has faced in the past from Gibson’s AL days), Trout’s experience should win out – expect him on base multiple times tonight.

Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners (9:40 PM ET)

Probable Pitchers: Bowden Francis (TOR, 2-5, 5.66 ERA) vs. Logan Evans (SEA, 1-1, 7.20 ERA)
Odds: Mariners -125, Blue Jays +105; Total 8.5 runs

The night wraps up with an interleague-ish matchup (former AL rivals) between the Blue Jays (17-20) and Mariners (22-14) in Seattle. The Mariners have been one of the better teams in the AL, led by their strong home record and excellent pitching, but tonight’s starter Logan Evans is something of a wild card. Evans, a rookie with a 7.20 ERA, is filling in due to an injury in Seattle’s rotation and hasn’t found much success yet. The Blue Jays will try to take advantage with their star-studded lineup featuring Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and George Springer. Toronto, however, has underachieved so far; inconsistent hitting and bullpen woes have hurt them on the road. They’ll start Bowden Francis, a swingman who has a 5.66 ERA and likely will only go through the lineup once or twice. This could effectively become a bullpen game for Toronto, and their bullpen has been shaky at times. Seattle’s lineup is not to be underestimated: Julio Rodríguez is a dynamic leadoff hitter (and last year’s AL Rookie of the Year), and Ty France and Eugenio Suárez provide tough at-bats in the middle. The Mariners also added some veteran presence with Kolten Wong and Teoscar Hernández (facing his old Jays team for the first time), so there’s a bit of extra juice in that matchup. T-Mobile Park generally suppresses offense, but with these two starting pitchers, the bats might come alive. Toronto’s hitters particularly will be relieved to get out of the dense air of their last few games and into a controlled environment like Seattle. The key will be whose bullpen bends without breaking – the Mariners have the clear edge there (their late-inning duo of Andrés Muñoz and Paul Sewald has been excellent), so Toronto needs to pounce early if they want to win.

Best Bet: Blue Jays +105 underdog. This is a gut pick: Toronto’s offense has the talent to rough up a shaky starter like Evans and grab an early lead. If they do, they might manage to hold on despite Seattle’s late-inning prowess. The Jays desperately need to kickstart their season, and an underdog win here could be it. It’s a risky play, but the value is on Toronto given the starting pitching matchup.

Top Player Prop: Julio Rodríguez Over 1.5 total bases. Julio has been tearing it up after a slow April. He can get those bases in many ways – a couple of singles, a double into the gap, or even via his speed (a single and a stolen base counts for total bases in many books). Against Francis and a suspect bullpen, Julio should showcase why he’s one of the brightest young stars, likely collecting multiple hits or an extra-base hit.

---

Top Betting Picks Summary: For today’s full slate, our favorite plays include the Kansas City Royals moneyline(riding their hot streak at home), the Under 7.5 in Giants vs. Twins (two ace-level pitchers in a pitchers’ park), and the Over 11.5 in Padres vs. Rockies (expect a Coors Field slugfest). We also like the Mets -1.5 runline against the Cubs and Braves -1.5 runline against the Pirates, as both favorites have significant advantages. On the prop side, backing big names like Ronald Acuña Jr. over 1.5 TB, Aaron Judge to homer, or Jacob deGrom over 8.5 Ks are high-upside options given the matchups. It’s a packed schedule with plenty of angles, so there’s no shortage of action to consider.

---

FAQ – Betting Today’s MLB Games

Q: What is the best MLB bet today?
A: While “best bet” can be subjective, one wager stands out: the Kansas City Royals moneyline at home against Boston. The Royals are on an incredible hot streak and have their young pitcher Cole Ragans going, giving them a great chance to win at near even odds. Additionally, the Under 7.5 in the Giants-Twins game looks strong given the elite starting pitchers on the mound. Both of those bets combine solid reasoning with value odds, making them our top choices.

Q: Which games offer the most value?
A: Value can often be found in underdogs or totals that the public might overlook. Today, the Toronto Blue Jays as slight underdogs (+105) against Seattle offers value – Toronto’s lineup versus a rookie starter is a favorable matchup that isn’t reflected in the near-even odds. Similarly, the Over 11.5 in Padres-Rockies might scare some bettors because the number is high, but given the situation (Coors Field and poor pitching), it’s a value play where the true expected runs might be well above that total. Finally, taking Cleveland +1.5 runs in Game 2 of their doubleheader is a value move; even if they don’t win, a close, low-scoring game is likely, and you’re getting the home team with a cushion at reasonable juice. Always compare odds across sportsbooks to ensure you’re getting the best price on these value plays. Good luck with your bets!