UFC 273 Predictions and Picks for Every Fight, April 9: MMA

UFC 273 Predictions and Picks for Every Fight, April 9: MMA

Credit: photo by Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

 
April 9, 2022: VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, Florida
 
Kingpin's two staff writers predict the winners for every matchup for UFC 273 and provide a preview for each fight.

 

Main Event: Alexander Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie (Featherweight Title Fight)
Jackson: Volkanovski

To be honest, I just don't think TKZ is worthy of a title shot, and is even close to Volkanovski's level. Brian Ortega is a better version of TKZ, as they have a similar striking and jiu-jitsu based game, and we saw what happened to Ortega when he fought Volk. I see Volkanovski dominating the striking exchanges, keeping this fight on the feet, and absolutely overwhelming TKZ with his insane output. I wouldn't be surprised if Volk gets a late KO in this one, given that his fight against Ortega could have been stopped at any moment and Ortega's durability. Volk is a huge favorite, and I expect him to look like one in this one. 

Brandon: Volkanovski

I know the line is staggering here, but I don't really think it's unjustified. Volk is on a mission to become the best Featherweight of all time, and he isn't too far off. The technicality and genius of his striking is top three in all of MMA, and combined with his sturdy frame and effective wrestling, he is an incredibly tough opponent. The Korean Zombie has pulled off some crazy submissions before, including but not limited to a twister submission and choking out Dustin Poirier, but if Brian Ortega couldn't tap out Volk with his mounted guillotine, I don't think anyone can. Korean Zombie doesn't have effective enough wrestling to get top position, and while his striking is solid it's nowhere near the level of the champion's. Volk will pick apart TKZ until he gets a late KO or a dominant decision victory.

 

Co-Main Event: Petr Yan vs. Aljamain Sterling (Bantamweight Title Fight)
Jackson: Yan

Petr Yan is the best fighter in the world at 135 pounds, as simple as that. His striking and fight IQ is second to none, and he manages to get better as the fight goes on. We've seen this fight before, and there's no reason to not back Yan in the second matchup. It was clear as day that Yan was taking over that fight, and he had figured Aljo's game out. I expect him to pick up right where he left off, perhaps even avoiding his usual slow start as he's already fought Aljo, and maybe even get a late finish in this fight. 

Brandon: Yan

On the topic of top three technical strikers in MMA, Yan very well could be number one. He is an absolute genius on the feet, setting traps and luring opponents in with his high guard just for them to do no damage to him and get the worst of the exchange every time. The one knock I have on Yan is that he starts slow to figure out his opponents, which allowed Sterling to likely win Round 1 of their first fight. He shouldn't have to do this as much this time around, and I hope he is able to immediately tee off on Aljo. In order to win, Aljo will likely need to control Yan on the mat for at least half of three rounds, and with Yan's great takedown defense and spacial awareness I can't see this happening. Outside of an absolute fluke submission, Yan has this fight won everywhere, and Aljo will have to find a new hobby outside of the octagon besides his pathetic attempts at trolling on TikTok.

 

Gilbert Burns vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Welterweight)
Jackson: Chimaev

As much as my gut tells me that Gilbert is a live dog in this one, I don't really see a path to victory other than a fluke submission from bottom or while Khamzat is attempting a takedown. Khamzat will likely have a moderate striking advantage, a power advantage, wrestling advantage, and size advantage in this fight. I think he could take down Gilbert pretty much at will, but he also could win the striking battle with his power and reach advantage, and opt to not put himself in danger with Gilbert on the mat. Chimaev's size and skillset presents an extremely difficult matchup for anyone in the division, and barring a fluke submission or knockout from Gilbert (due to an unforeseen chin or weight cut issue from Khamzat), I expect him to roll again here. HE'S GOING TO KILL EVERYBODYYYYYYYY

Brandon: Chimaev

Look, I love Chimaev just as much as the next guy, think he's 100% the real deal, and will win this fight. However, these odds are downright disrespectful to Gilbert Burns. Kamaru Usman, the number one pound-for-pound fighter in the world, was a -275 favorite against Burns, and Burns dropped him in the first. He is a high-level Jiu-Jitsu Black Belt, a quality boxer, and he's as experienced as they come. His biggest weakness is boxing defense, which is the one thing Khamzat hasn't really taken advantage of yet in his short UFC career (except against GM3). Additionally, Khamzat is Muslim, and will be fasting for Ramadan, making his already difficult weight cut even tougher. With all that being said, Khamzat is going to win this fight. He's as good as it gets pretty much everywhere, and will have a massive strength advantage as he is a natural MW, whereas Burns is a natural LW (and got KO'd by Hooker there). Khamzat will use his tremendous skill set, fight IQ, and strength to find the best avenue to beating Burns, exploit it, and set himself up for a title shot.

 

Mackenzie Dern vs. Tecia Torres (Women's Strawweight)
Jackson: Torres

As you read forward in this article, you will see a common theme: I'm reluctant to back fighters with one path to victory. This fight is a great example. In my eyes, Mackenzie Dern is submission-dependent in this matchup, fighting against a woman that has only lost to the best in the world and has never been finished. Granted, Torres has vulnerable takedown defense and Dern is the greatest submission threat the division has ever seen. However, Torres' get up game is good, and Dern's wrestling sucks. Thus, I envision Tecia absolutely dancing circles around Dern on the feet, and Dern struggling to get takedowns, given her lack of skill with them, and Torres' speed. Torres is out of a great camp that has been succeeding as of late, and fighting great game plans. For these reasons, I'm on the fighter that has the tools to win for 15 minutes, rather than one that is likely submission dependent.

Brandon: Torres

This pick is tough for me, as I respect good Jiu-Jitsu and tend to lean towards grapplers in three round fights over strikers, especially in women's fights. However, Dern has been exposed lately for huge flaws in the other facets of her game - her striking is terrible, and her wrestling is ineffective with against high level competition with sloppy, weak entries despite her size. I like Torres a lot and I think she is one of the better strikers in the division, and although she has very little power and likely cannot finish this fight, she is exceptionally quick and accurate in her striking. Her takedown defense is fine, not great, but should be enough to keep the fight off the mat long enough to pick Dern apart on the feet. If this fight plays out for long spells on the mat I expect Dern to get a finish, but I think Tecia will keep her standing and dominate on the feet long enough to win at least two rounds.

 

Vinc Pichel vs. Mark O. Madsen (Lightweight)
Jackson: Pichel

How can you not be behind Vinc Pichel in a winnable fight? "From Hell" has all the intangibles you want in a fighter - heart, grit, cardio, and durability. And while he does have bad takedown defense, which could pose a problem in this matchup against a very talented wrestler, he will do everything in his power to get up and unleash upon his opponent. He won't go away quietly, and this will be a large issue for Madsen, as he has struggled with cardio and control in the past. We've seen Madsen be a good hammer, but I think we'll see Pichel make him be the nail, and I have suspicions that he won't be a good one. I expect Pichel to outwork Madsen in this one, to a late KO or decision victory.

Brandon: Pichel

I leaned Pichel pretty heavily early on, but got a little concerned as money has consistently rolled in on Madsen. After doing some tape study on the fighters, and most importantly, listening to The Vinc Whisperer himself (Shoutout Paul Shaughnessy) give his prediction, I am firmly on Pichel here. I got him at -130, but if you can get him at that or lower it's a steal. Yes, Madsen is a great wrestler, but he has some serious deficiencies in his game. His striking is well below average, and he leaves his legs exposed to be chewed up by leg kicks all day long. Pichel found a lot of success in his leg kicks against Hubbard, which combined with his strength helped him significantly in neutralizing Hubbard's wrestling. Pichel is a junkyard dog and will fight for your money - it may not be pretty, and he may lose round 1, but I expect Vinc to come out on top here.

 

Ian Garry vs. Darian Weeks (Welterweight)
Jackson: Garry

As much as I wasn't impressed with Garry in his debut, similar to Paddy Pimblett, the UFC knows what they're doing with this young prospect. Darian Weeks is intentionally a pretty soft matchup for Garry, and someone that won't look to exploit his shortcomings. Garry's out of a good camp in Sanford, and will be improving each time he steps in the octagon. While his defensive striking was piss poor in his first matchup, his chin held up, and he was able to showcase his elite finishing ability. Additionally, he will be much larger and stronger than Weeks, who will struggle to have damaging punches and success with takedowns. He's a hand-picked opponent, and probably worse than Garry's last opponent. I see Garry getting a KO victory in this one, and taking the fight wherever he wants to.

Brandon: Garry

I wasn't thoroughly impressed with Ian Garry in his first matchup, especially given the hype of him being the second coming of McGregor. His striking defense looked weak and he undeniably took some hard shots from Jordan Williams, with his face bleeding before the end of the first round. However, I was impressed by his intelligence in the finish, demonstrating high fight IQ to lure Williams in and extend him, just to counter with a vicious check hook. His size is another huge factor for him, as he is a massive welterweight and this should help him defend takedown attempts from Weeks. Weeks is a very high volume fighter, but is also very hittable. Garry has a significant power and striking advantage, and I think he finds the chin of Weeks early on and gets a KO finish in this hand-picked matchup for the Irish prospect.

 

Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Marcin Tybura (Heavyweight)
Jackson: Rozenstruik

I've had a very difficult time with this fight, and don't have a strong lean either way. And truth be told, I have always had bias against Bigi Boi. I just honestly hate backing him, because he is so low-output and KO-dependent. Nonetheless, I think this is a spot I'd like to back him. There is a scenario in which Tybura grinds on and grapples Jair the entire fight, but I see Jair finding Tybura's chin (which has been compromised many times before) at some point in the fight. He's also enormous, and will be difficult for Tybura to take down. If we see the Jair that fought against Sakai, this fight will be over in the first round, no doubt. Jair has all the tools to win this fight. At the end of the day, we have to look at the tiers these fighters fall in. Rozenstruik has 3 losses to 3 of the best fighters in the division in Ngannou, Gane, and Blaydes. Tybura is a heavyweight can crusher, that has failed to succeed against the upper echelon of the division. I guess I'm on Jair in this one, but I don't feel great about it. 

Brandon: Rozenstruik

Rozenstruik has shown he doesn't have what it takes to beat the best of the best in this division, but this fight is another chance for him to prove he can still beat everyone below him, just as he did to Augusto Sakai. Tybura is much better than Sakai, but like Sakai has been knocked out several times and has a suspect chin. I'm a little worried about Rozenstruik's low output, and Tybura is a good wrestler, but not nearly as good as Curtis Blaydes, who had success against Rozenstruik but not enough to hold him down the whole fight. Tybura will get some takedowns and ground control, but I am confident the big man with the Death Touch will find the chin of Tybura in this one.

 

Mickey Gall vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight)
Jackson: Gall

On a card that I struggle to find dogs I like on, Gall is one I can get behind. He's had better showings as of late, despite not being able to find a signature win. He is still somewhat young, has switched to a good camp in Sanford MMA, and has a wealth of UFC experience. Although Mike Mallott could have a better skillset and more finishing ability than Gall, there are many red flags. He's the BJJ coach at Alpha Male (big deal, they're not good at it anyway), most of his fights are quick finishes in which he has struggled when he has gotten extended, and he beat a 21 year old fighter in his DWCS fight. Mickey Gall is a good grappler in his own right, and should be able hang with Mallott on the feet, especially past the first round. I expect Gall to use his UFC experience to make Mallott face adversity, which is enough for me to back him in this fight. 

Brandon: Gall

Mickey Gall has one of the stranger professional careers in MMA. His second career professional fight was in the UFC, and he has fought here ever since after rattling off three straight submission wins (including one over CM Punk - yes, CM Punk). Ever since, he has alternated wins and losses in his last seven fights, with his four losses all coming against good competition, and submitting lower competition. Malott falls into the category of lower competition as he makes his UFC debut, but it could be a difficult matchup for Mickey. Malott is the BJJ coach at Alpha Male and is a skilled grappler himself, but in watching UFC fighters from Alpha Male grapple and watching Malott himself grapple, I think there is plenty to be desired. Mickey has been rolling on the mat with the best in the business for many years now, and I think his advantage there will get him the victory on Saturday.

 

Aleksei Oleinik vs. Jared Vanderaa (Heavyweight)
Jackson: Vanderaa

I hate everything about this fight. Two gross heavyweights, each with a path to victory against the other. Vanderaa has shown a clear takedown deficiency, but shines in cardio and volume striking. Oleinik has shown slick submissions, but has poor takedowns, cardio, and durability at this stage of his career. My pick in this fight comes down to who I think has more paths to victory, and that is Vanderaa. Personally, I think that Oleinik is completely sub or bust in this fight, most likely in the first round. He has about 6 minutes (or possibly less) to win this fight. Vanderaa will win the standup, and will take over this fight past the first round. At the end of the day, I'm betting on Vanderaa to not get submitted in the first by an old Oleinik, at which he will cruise to a decision, and possibly late KO victory.

Brandon: Vanderaa

For those of you who read our last article and saw me pick Oleinik over Latifi, I apologize for the confusion. Vanderaa presents a much different matchup for the geriatric Boa Constrictor however, in that he leads with good volume, has great clinch work (where Oleinik struggles mightily), and is significantly bigger. I wasn't as worried about Latifi knocking Aleksei out as I am with Vanderaa - I think it's inevitable if he manages to stay off his back for about two minutes. Vanderaa will struggle if he gets laid out on his back early on, and the line reflects this. However, I don't think Oleinik has the size, stength, and cardio to be as effective as he used to be on the ground, and there's a chance he could even be taken down by Vanderaa here. His chin is cracked beyond belief, and I think that any decent connection from Jared could flatline him. Outside of a quick submission, Oleinik has no paths to victory, and I don't see him finding success early on.

 

Anthony Hernandez vs. Josh Fremd (Middleweight)
Jackson: Hernandez

Not the strongest lean on this fight, but I think that Fluffy has the experience and well-rounded style to win this fight. There's honestly not much to say about Fluffy, other than he's been in there with some very solid fighters, and has shown a very well rounded skillset. Fremd is a big striker training out of a good gym, but his game just looks very green. This will be a massive step up in competition for him, and while he does have great finishing ability, I expect the veteran in Fluffy to weather his storm, and welcome him to the UFC with a finish victory. 

Brandon: Hernandez

I really don't have a whole lot to say about Fremd here other than his deficiencies - all of which Fluffy should be able to exploit. He has a tendency to swing wildly, expecting his size and power to get the job done for him. While he is a capable grappler when he has top position, he is easy to take down when he swings, and a simple feint and shoot should earn Fluffy top position. From there, I think he has a good shot to submit Fremd, who has not faced a high level grappler like Hernandez who is coming off a submission victory over an eight-time Jiu-Jitsu champion. There's always a chance Fremd connects with a big shot, and I think this fight is priced fairly, but I'm on the more experienced fighter in Fluffy to take care of an opponent who only fought decent competition once (and got sent to the shadow realm).

 

Piera Rodriguez vs. Kay Hansen (Women's Strawweight)
Jackson: Rodriguez

To tell you the truth, I don't have a good read on this fight. The truth of the matter is that I don't want to be on the side of 21 year old Kay Hansen in the near future. She has pretty good jiu jitsu and athleticism, but not much else; her wrestling and striking both are stinky. I'm not exceptionally high on Rodriguez either, but I think she has the striking to beat Kay on the feet, semi-handedly. Kay is very very hittable, and Piera is very strong, especially in the clinch, and has powerful striking. Albeit she doesn't have great movement or volume, but she lands plentiful of impactful strikes on the feet. I expect Hansen to land 1-2 takedowns in this fight - what she does with them will determine the fight's outcome. While I haven't really seen Piera off her back, I do know that she has trained with the likes of Vanessa Demopoulos and Mackenzie Dern at some point at Black House MMA. Thus, if she can use this training to avoid being submitted, I think she will win this fight. Another point: I think Kay will need to get these takedowns in the open. Rodriguez has very good cage work, which will eliminate this route of takedown - something that is very prevalent in WMMA. The route for Hansen to either submit Rodriguez or win 2 rounds via control is undoubtedly live, but I just can't get behind her at this point in her career.

Brandon: Hansen

I need to take a shower after this pick - this just feels wrong. Kay Hansen just is not good, and I was hoping she would take some time off to work on her game, but I'm glad she's at least back at her natural division. Her style resembles Mackenzie Dern's, and by that I mean she has terrible wrestling and bad striking but good Jiu-Jitsu (no, I'm not comparing her Jiu-Jitsu to anywhere near the level of Dern's). She's tough to watch, but with all that being said, Rodriguez offers a great opportunity for takedowns. If Hansen gets the fight to the mat, she will win. Rodriguez is often flat footed and slow to react, and if Kay makes a concerted effort to wrestle (with good technique) she will get her to the mat and could possibly finish it there. If she doesn't she loses this fight badly and probably gets cut, so I expect her to make a significant push to take Piera down and get her win there.

 

Julio Arce vs. Daniel Santos (Bantamweight)
Jackson: Arce

I don't know much about Daniel Santos, but I know that Julio Arce is a very solid UFC bantamweight fighter, with a wealth of UFC experience. He's fairly well rounded, but really excels in the striking. This level of opponent will be tough for any UFC debutant to deal with, let alone not having a professional fight in almost 2.5 years. Almost blindly, I'll take Arce in this matchup.

Brandon: Arce

Julio Arce has really flown under the radar in this division. No, I'm not saying he's a contender or should be ranked, but he is a very skilled fighter all over, especially on the feet. He's very athletic and has sneaky power for this division, and has fought multiple very skilled fighters. Meanwhile, Santos is making his UFC debut after not having fought in 2.5 years. I like what I've seen from Santos - he's athletic and powerful as well - but his style does not match up well against Arce. He throws a high amount of spinning attacks, and a veteran like Arce who has seen much better strikers should have the intelligence to see this coming and capitalize on it with counters and possibly even takedowns. I think Arce gets the better of Santos here everywhere, and wins by decision.

 

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Winnings $20,259
last 30 days winnings $0
Yesterday winnings $0
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last 30 days winnings $0
Yesterday winnings $0
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